Adjustment Mechanisms of Industrial Energy Consumption by Economic and Energy Shock Type in Korea (1995‒2024): A Focus on LMDI Decomposition Results

doi:10.15266/KEREA.2026.35.3.427

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2026 Vol.35, Issue 3 Preview Page Next Page

Research Paper

Adjustment Mechanisms of Industrial Energy Consumption by Economic and Energy Shock Type in Korea (1995‒2024): A Focus on LMDI Decomposition Results 경제‧에너지 충격 유형별 국내 산업의 에너지 소비 조정 메커니즘 분석(1995~2024): LMDI 분해 결과를 중심으로: 정현진*‧임재규**
Hyun Jin Jeong* and Jae Kyu Lim**; *숭실대학교 에너지정책‧기술융합학과 석사과정, 제1저자(e-mail: 1107guswls@soongsil.ac.kr)
**숭실대학교 경제학과 교수, 교신저자(e-mail: jklim@ssu.ac.kr)

*Graduate Student, Department of Energy Policy and Technology Convergence, Soongsil University, First author (e-mail: 1107guswls@soongsil.ac.kr)
**Professor, Department of Economics, Soongsil University, Corresponding author (e-mail: jklim@ssu.ac.kr)

30 September 2026. pp. 427-456

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Abstract

As geopolitical risks destabilize energy supply chains and intensify price volatility, empirical analysis is needed to examine differences in industrial energy consumption adjustment patterns under different types of external shocks. This study compares demand-type and cost-type shocks using LMDI decomposition based on industry-level and manufacturing subsector data from 1995 to 2024, comparing crisis-period averages with non-crisis averages. The results show that the 1998 currency crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic were characterized as demand-type shocks, whereas the 2022 energy price surge was characterized as a cost-type shock. The 2009 global financial crisis showed relatively weaker demand-type shock characteristics. During demand-type shocks, reductions in the activity effect appeared as a major contributor to energy consumption adjustment, while during the cost-type shock, reductions in the intensity effect were more pronounced. These adjustment patterns were closely linked to factor contributions within manufacturing. At the subsector level, energy-intensive industries showed adjustment mainly through reductions in the intensity effect during the cost-type shock, whereas other manufacturing subsectors showed demand-driven adjustment centered on the activity effect. These findings suggest that energy consumption adjustment mechanisms may vary across subsectors even under similar external shocks, depending on energy intensity and process characteristics.

Keywords

LMDI

Activity effect

Structure effect

Intensity effect

Shock type

지정학적 리스크로 인한 에너지 공급망 불안정 및 가격 변동성 심화에 따라, 외부 충격의 성격별 산업 에너지 소비 조정 양상 차이에 대한 실증적 검토가 필요하다. 이에 본 연구는 수요형 충격과 비용형 충격 시 에너지 소비 변화의 요인별 기여 구조가 다를 수 있다는 점에 주목하여, 1995~2024년 산업 및 제조업 자료를 활용한 LMDI 분해 분석을 적용하고 위기구간 평균과 비위기 평균의 차이를 비교하였다. 분석 결과, 1998년 외환위기와 2020년 코로나19 팬데믹은 수요형 충격, 2022년 에너지 가격 급등기는 비용형 충격으로 나타났으며, 2009년 글로벌 금융위기는 수요형 충격의 성격이 상대적으로 약하게 나타났다. 수요형 충격 시기에는 활동효과 감소가, 비용형 충격 시기에는 원단위효과 감소가 주요한 조정 요인으로 나타났으며, 이러한 조정 양상은 제조업의 요인별 기여와 밀접하게 연결되어 있었다. 업종별 분석 결과, 에너지 다소비 업종에서는 비용형 충격 시 원단위효과 감소를 중심으로 에너지 소비 조정이 나타난 반면, 기타 제조업에서는 활동효과 중심의 수요 연동형 조정 패턴이 주로 관찰되었다. 이는 동일한 외부 충격이라도 업종별 에너지 집약도와 공정 특성에 따라 에너지 소비 조정 메커니즘이 상이하게 나타날 수 있음을 시사한다.

키워드

LMDI

활동효과

구조효과

원단위효과

충격 유형

References

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Jeong, K., and S. Kim, “LMDI Decomposition Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Korean Manufacturing Sector,” Energy Policy, Vol. 62, 2013.10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.077
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Information

Publisher :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
Publisher(Ko) :자원 · 환경경제연구
Journal Title :자원·환경경제연구
Journal Title(Ko) :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
Volume : 35
No :3
Pages :427-456
DOI :https://doi.org/10.15266/KEREA.2026.35.3.427

[1] 김수이, “국내 제조업의 전력 소비 요인분해 분석”, ｢에너지경제연구｣, 제22권 제1호, 2023.10.33770/JEBD.39.3.1

[2] 김수이‧김현석, “LMDI 방법론을 이용한 국내 제조업의 에너지 소비 요인 분해 분석”, ｢에너지경제연구｣, 제10권 제1호, 2011.

[3] 김태연, “경제위기 전후 산업별 에너지소비량 변화요인 연구”, 숭실대학교 대학원 석사학위논문, 2020.

[4] 김태형‧구자열‧채재용, “LMDI 방법론을 이용한 최근 국내 제조업 전력소비 변화요인 분석: 에너지 다소비 업종을 중심으로”, ｢대한전기학회 하계학술대회 논문집｣, 2025.

[5] 대한민국 정부, ｢기후위기 대응을 위한 탄소중립‧녹색성장 기본법｣, 2021.

[6] 박정욱‧김수이, “한국과 일본의 산업부문 에너지 소비에 대한 LMDI 요인분해 분석”, ｢에너지경제연구｣, 제12권 제1호, 2013.

[7] 에너지경제연구원, ｢2022~2050 산업 부문 에너지 전망｣, 2024.

[8] 임재규‧김종익, “국내 산업부문의 전력‧에너지 소비효율 비교‧분석: LMDI 요인분해 방법론 활용”, ｢에너지경제연구｣, 제13권 제1호, 2014.

[9] 한국에너지공단, ｢2024 에너지 첫걸음｣, 2024.

[10] 한국은행, ｢제조업 경기 회복기 비교｣, 2023.

[11] Akyürek, Z., “LMDI Decomposition Analysis of Energy Consumption of Turkish Manufacturing Industry: 2005‒2014,” Energy Efficiency, Vol. 13, No. 4, 2020.10.1007/s12053-020-09846-8

[12] Ang, B. W., “Decomposition Analysis for Policymaking in Energy: Which Is the Preferred Method?,” Energy Policy, Vol. 32, No. 9, 2004.10.1016/S0301-4215(03)00076-4

[13] Ang, B. W., “LMDI Decomposition Approach: A Guide for Implementation,” Energy Policy, Vol. 86, 2015.10.1016/j.enpol.2015.07.007

[14] Ang, B. W., “The LMDI Approach to Decomposition Analysis: A Practical Guide,” Energy Policy, Vol. 33, No. 7, 2005.10.1016/j.enpol.2003.10.010

[15] Ang, B. W., and F. Q. Zhang, “A Survey of Index Decomposition Analysis in Energy and Environmental Studies,” Energy, Vol. 25, No. 12, 2000.10.1016/S0360-5442(00)00039-6

[16] Ang, B. W., and K. H. Choi, “Decomposition of Aggregate Energy and Gas Emission Intensities for Industry: A Refined Divisia Index Method,” The Energy Journal, Vol. 18, No. 3, 1997, pp. 59~73.10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol18-No3-3

[17] Hamilton, J. D., “Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 91, No. 2, 1983.10.1086/261140

[18] Hyndman, R. J., and G. Athanasopoulos, Forecasting: Principles and Practice, 3rd ed., OTexts, 2021.

[19] IEA, Global Energy Review 2021, International Energy Agency, Paris, 2021.

[20] IEA, Korea 2025: Energy Policy Review, International Energy Agency, Paris, 2025.

[21] IEA, World Energy Outlook 2022, International Energy Agency, Paris, 2022.

[22] IPCC, Global Warming of 1.5°C, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2018.

[23] Jeong, K., and S. Kim, “LMDI Decomposition Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Korean Manufacturing Sector,” Energy Policy, Vol. 62, 2013.10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.077

[24] Kilian, L., “Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market,” American Economic Review, Vol. 99, No. 3, 2009.10.1257/aer.99.3.1053

[25] Kim, S., “LMDI Decomposition Analysis of Energy Consumption in the Korean Manufacturing Sector,” Sustainability, Vol. 9, No. 2, 2017.10.3390/su9020202

[26] Le Quéré, C., R. B. Jackson, M. W. Jones, A. J. P. Smith, S. Abernethy, R. M. Andrew, A. J. De-Gol, D. R. Willis, Y. Shan, J. G. Canadell, P. Friedlingstein, F. Creutzig, and G. P. Peters, “Temporary Reduction in Daily Global CO₂ Emissions during the COVID-19 Forced Confinement,” Nature Climate Change, Vol. 10, 2020.10.1038/s41558-020-0797-x

[27] Oh, I., W. Wehrmeyer, and Y. Mulugetta, “Decomposition Analysis and Mitigation Strategies of CO₂ Emissions from Energy Consumption in South Korea,” Energy Policy, Vol. 38, No. 1, 2010.10.1016/j.enpol.2009.09.027

[28] Park, J., T. Jin, S. Lee, and J. Woo, “Industrial Electrification and Efficiency: Decomposition Evidence from the Korean Industrial Sector,” Energies, Vol. 14, No. 16, 2021.10.3390/en14165120

[29] Sun, J. W., “Changes in Energy Consumption and Energy Intensity: A Complete Decomposition Model,” Energy Economics, Vol. 20, No. 1, 1998.10.1016/S0140-9883(97)00012-1

[30] Timma, L., T. Zoss, and D. Blumberga, “Life after the Financial Crisis: Energy Intensity and Energy Use Decomposition on Sectoral Level in Latvia,” Applied Energy, Vol. 162, 2016.10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.04.021

[31] UNFCCC, Paris Agreement, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2015.

[32] Voigt, S., E. De Cian, M. Schymura, and E. Verdolini, “Energy Intensity Developments in 40 Major Economies: Structural Change or Technology Improvement?,” Energy Economics, Vol. 41, 2014.10.1016/j.eneco.2013.10.015

[33] World Bank, “Manufacturing, Value Added (% of GDP) — Korea, Rep.” World Development Indicators, 2024.

[34] World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook: The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Commodity Markets, World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022.

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