The Price Effects of Electricity Market Reform: Evidence from the Jeju Pilot Program in Korea

doi:10.15266/KEREA.2026.35.3.457

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2026 Vol.35, Issue 3 Preview Page Next Page

Research Paper

The Price Effects of Electricity Market Reform: Evidence from the Jeju Pilot Program in Korea 전력시장 제도개선이 계통한계가격에 미치는 영향: 제주 시범사업을 중심으로: 장연재*
Yenjae Chang*; *숭실대학교 경제학과 조교수, 단독저자(e-mail: ychang@ssu.ac.kr)

*Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Soongsil University, Sole author (e-mail: ychang@ssu.ac.kr)

30 September 2026. pp. 457-493

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Abstract

This study examines the price effects of a pilot electricity market reform implemented in Jeju, Korea. The reform introduced a real-time market and a reserve market, and allowed renewable generators to submit price bids, thereby enabling renewable resources to set the system marginal price (SMP) directly. Using hourly day-ahead prices in Jeju from June 2023 to May 2026, we estimate the effect of the reform while controlling for fuel costs, electricity demand, and renewable generation potential. Fixed effects and year-over-year first-differenced models are estimated in parallel, as the two rely on different identifying assumptions. The results indicate that the SMP declined by approximately 9 KRW/kWh following the reform, with the two models yielding closely aligned estimates. The effect varies substantially across seasons and hours of the day, concentrating in spring and autumn and in the evening hours. These findings suggest that the price effects of renewable expansion depend not only on the volume of renewable generation but also on the institutional arrangements through which it enters the market.

Keywords

Electricity market reform

System marginal price

Renewable bidding scheme

Jeju pilot program

Policy evaluation

본 연구는 제주에서 시행된 전력시장 제도개선 시범사업이 도매전력가격에 미친 영향을 분석하였다. 이 사업은 실시간시장과 예비력시장을 신설하고 재생에너지에 가격입찰 자격을 부여함으로써, 재생에너지가 계통한계가격(SMP)을 직접 결정할 수 있도록 시장 구조를 변경하였다. 분석에는 2023년 6월부터 2026년 5월까지 제주의 시간별 하루전시장 가격 자료를 이용하였으며, 연료비와 전력수요, 재생에너지 발전잠재량을 통제한 후 고정효과 모형과 전년 동월 차분 모형을 병행하여 추정하였다. 분석 결과 시범사업 시행 이후 SMP는 약 9원/kWh 하락한 것으로 나타났으며, 두 모형의 추정치는 서로 근접하였다. 효과는 계절과 시간대에 따라 상이하여 봄과 가을, 그리고 저녁 시간대에 집중되었다. 본 연구는 재생에너지 확대의 가격 효과가 발전 물량뿐 아니라 이를 시장에 편입시키는 방식에 의해서도 달라질 수 있음을 보여준다.

키워드

전력시장 제도개선

계통한계가격

재생에너지 입찰제도

제주 시범사업

정책효과 분석

References

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윤원철, “전력시장가격에 대한 역사적 요인분해”, ｢에너지경제연구｣, 제16권 제1호, 2017, pp. 35~55.
이서진‧김영민, “전력계통한계가격 변동성 결정요인 분석: 베이지안 변수선택 방법”, ｢자원‧환경경제연구｣, 제31권 제3호, 2022, pp. 393~417.
이서진‧유종민, “재생에너지 발전 확대에 따른 전력계통한계가격의 변화”, ｢자원‧환경경제연구｣, 제31권 제2호, 2022, pp. 141~163.
이지훈‧홍원준‧조홍종, “국내 전력시장의 구조적 문제점과 근본적 개선방안 연구”, ｢산업연구｣, 제48권 제1호, 2024, pp. 79~114.
전력거래소, “전력시장 제도개선 제주 시범사업 시행 안내”, 2024.
전력거래소, 『전력시장 제도개선 제주 시범사업 상세설계(안)』, 2022.
전력거래소, 『전력시장 제도개선 제주 시범사업 운영규칙(안)』, 2023.
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Borenstein, S., J. B. Bushnell, and F. A. Wolak, “Measuring Market Inefficiencies in California’s Restructured Wholesale Electricity Market,” American Economic Review, Vol. 92, No. 5, 2002, pp. 1376~1405.10.1257/000282802762024557
Borenstein, S., J. Bushnell, C. R. Knittel, and C. Wolfram, “Inefficiencies and Market Power in Financial Arbitrage: A Study of California’s Electricity Markets,” Journal of Industrial Economics, Vol. 56, No. 2, 2008, pp. 347~378.10.1111/j.1467-6451.2008.00344.x
Brown, D. P., and M. Reguant, “The Price Impacts of Renewable Power: A Tale of Two Sources,” International Journal of Industrial Organization, 2026, 103283 (in press).10.1016/j.ijindorg.2026.103283
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Bushnell, J., and K. Novan, “Setting with the Sun: The Impacts of Renewable Energy on Conventional Generation,” Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, Vol. 8, No. 4, 2021, pp. 759~796.10.1086/713249
Chang, Y., D.-W. Kim, and M.-K. Kim, “Smart Metering and Demand Response: Analyzing the Relationship with Current Electricity Consumption in Korea,” Empirical Economics, Vol. 70, 2026, Article 12.10.1007/s00181-025-02864-4
Fabra, N., and Imelda, “Market Power and Price Exposure: Learning from Changes in Renewable Energy Regulation,” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Vol. 15, No. 4, 2023, pp. 323~358.10.1257/pol.20210221
Ito, K., and M. Reguant, “Sequential Markets, Market Power, and Arbitrage,” American Economic Review, Vol. 106, No. 7, 2016, pp. 1921~1957.10.1257/aer.20141529
Ketterer, J. C., “The Impact of Wind Power Generation on the Electricity Price in Germany,” Energy Economics, Vol. 44, 2014, pp. 270~280.10.1016/j.eneco.2014.04.003
Lo Prete, C., K. Palmer, and M. Robertson, “Time for a Market Upgrade? A Review of Wholesale Electricity Market Designs for the Future,” Energy Economics, Vol. 148, 2025, 108640.10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108640
Reguant, M., “Complementary Bidding Mechanisms and Startup Costs in Electricity Markets,” Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 81, No. 4, 2014, pp. 1708~1742.10.1093/restud/rdu022
Sensfuß, F., M. Ragwitz, and M. Genoese, “The Merit-Order Effect: A Detailed Analysis of the Price Effect of Renewable Electricity Generation on Spot Market Prices in Germany,” Energy Policy, Vol. 36, No. 8, 2008, pp. 3086~3094.10.1016/j.enpol.2008.03.035
Woo, C.-K., I. Horowitz, J. Moore, and A. Pacheco, “The Impact of Wind Generation on the Electricity Spot-Market Price Level and Variance: The Texas Experience,” Energy Policy, Vol. 39, 2011, pp. 3939~3944.10.1016/j.enpol.2011.03.084
Wozabal, D., C. Graf, and D. Hirschmann, “The Effect of Intermittent Renewables on the Electricity Price Variance,” OR Spectrum, Vol. 38, 2016, pp. 687~709.10.1007/s00291-015-0395-x
Würzburg, K., X. Labandeira, and P. Linares, “Renewable Generation and Electricity Prices: Taking Stock and New Evidence for Germany and Austria,” Energy Economics, Vol. 40, Supplement 1, 2013, pp. S159~S171.10.1016/j.eneco.2013.09.011

Information

Publisher :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
Publisher(Ko) :자원 · 환경경제연구
Journal Title :자원·환경경제연구
Journal Title(Ko) :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
Volume : 35
No :3
Pages :457-493
DOI :https://doi.org/10.15266/KEREA.2026.35.3.457

[1] 기상청, 기상자료개방포털 종관기상관측(ASOS) 시간자료, https://data.kma.go.kr/data/grnd/selectAsosRltmList.do

[2] 김대욱‧최우진‧최자영, “우리나라 전력시장의 시장지배력 측정에 관한 연구”, ｢규제연구｣, 제21권 제1호, 2012, pp. 1~19.

[3] 산업통상자원부, 『제11차 전력수급기본계획(2024~2038)』, 2025.10.1145/3719027.3765157

[4] 송재도, “가격입찰방식의 전력시장 특성 및 문제점 분석”, ｢에너지경제연구｣, 제19권 제2호, 2020, pp. 1~30.

[5] 윤원철, “전력시장가격에 대한 역사적 요인분해”, ｢에너지경제연구｣, 제16권 제1호, 2017, pp. 35~55.

[6] 이서진‧김영민, “전력계통한계가격 변동성 결정요인 분석: 베이지안 변수선택 방법”, ｢자원‧환경경제연구｣, 제31권 제3호, 2022, pp. 393~417.

[7] 이서진‧유종민, “재생에너지 발전 확대에 따른 전력계통한계가격의 변화”, ｢자원‧환경경제연구｣, 제31권 제2호, 2022, pp. 141~163.

[8] 이지훈‧홍원준‧조홍종, “국내 전력시장의 구조적 문제점과 근본적 개선방안 연구”, ｢산업연구｣, 제48권 제1호, 2024, pp. 79~114.

[9] 전력거래소, “전력시장 제도개선 제주 시범사업 시행 안내”, 2024.

[10] 전력거래소, 『전력시장 제도개선 제주 시범사업 상세설계(안)』, 2022.

[11] 전력거래소, 『전력시장 제도개선 제주 시범사업 운영규칙(안)』, 2023.

[12] 전력거래소, 계통한계가격(SMP) — 제주, https://new.kpx.or.kr/smpJeju.es?mid=a10606080200

[13] 전력거래소, 하루전 발전계획용 수요예측 — 제주, https://new.kpx.or.kr/pssJeju.es?mid=a10606090200

[14] 전력통계정보시스템(EPSIS), 발전설비 현황, https://epsis.kpx.or.kr/epsisnew/selectEkpoBftChart.do?menuId=020100

[15] 전력통계정보시스템(EPSIS), 연료비단가, https://epsis.kpx.or.kr/epsisnew/selectEkmaFucUpfChart.do?menuId=040100

[16] 한국에너지공단, 『2024년 신‧재생에너지 보급통계』, 2025.

[17] Abadie, A., S. Athey, G. W. Imbens, and J. M. Wooldridge, “When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering?” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 138, No. 1, 2023, pp. 1~35.10.1093/qje/qjac038

[18] Borenstein, S., J. B. Bushnell, and F. A. Wolak, “Measuring Market Inefficiencies in California’s Restructured Wholesale Electricity Market,” American Economic Review, Vol. 92, No. 5, 2002, pp. 1376~1405.10.1257/000282802762024557

[19] Borenstein, S., J. Bushnell, C. R. Knittel, and C. Wolfram, “Inefficiencies and Market Power in Financial Arbitrage: A Study of California’s Electricity Markets,” Journal of Industrial Economics, Vol. 56, No. 2, 2008, pp. 347~378.10.1111/j.1467-6451.2008.00344.x

[20] Brown, D. P., and M. Reguant, “The Price Impacts of Renewable Power: A Tale of Two Sources,” International Journal of Industrial Organization, 2026, 103283 (in press).10.1016/j.ijindorg.2026.103283

[21] Buchsbaum, J., C. Hausman, J. L. Mathieu, and J. Peng, “Spillovers from Ancillary Services to Wholesale Energy Markets,” RAND Journal of Economics, Vol. 55, No. 1, 2024, pp. 87~111.10.1111/1756-2171.12459

[22] Bushnell, J., and K. Novan, “Setting with the Sun: The Impacts of Renewable Energy on Conventional Generation,” Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, Vol. 8, No. 4, 2021, pp. 759~796.10.1086/713249

[23] Chang, Y., D.-W. Kim, and M.-K. Kim, “Smart Metering and Demand Response: Analyzing the Relationship with Current Electricity Consumption in Korea,” Empirical Economics, Vol. 70, 2026, Article 12.10.1007/s00181-025-02864-4

[24] Fabra, N., and Imelda, “Market Power and Price Exposure: Learning from Changes in Renewable Energy Regulation,” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Vol. 15, No. 4, 2023, pp. 323~358.10.1257/pol.20210221

[25] Ito, K., and M. Reguant, “Sequential Markets, Market Power, and Arbitrage,” American Economic Review, Vol. 106, No. 7, 2016, pp. 1921~1957.10.1257/aer.20141529

[26] Ketterer, J. C., “The Impact of Wind Power Generation on the Electricity Price in Germany,” Energy Economics, Vol. 44, 2014, pp. 270~280.10.1016/j.eneco.2014.04.003

[27] Lo Prete, C., K. Palmer, and M. Robertson, “Time for a Market Upgrade? A Review of Wholesale Electricity Market Designs for the Future,” Energy Economics, Vol. 148, 2025, 108640.10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108640

[28] Reguant, M., “Complementary Bidding Mechanisms and Startup Costs in Electricity Markets,” Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 81, No. 4, 2014, pp. 1708~1742.10.1093/restud/rdu022

[29] Sensfuß, F., M. Ragwitz, and M. Genoese, “The Merit-Order Effect: A Detailed Analysis of the Price Effect of Renewable Electricity Generation on Spot Market Prices in Germany,” Energy Policy, Vol. 36, No. 8, 2008, pp. 3086~3094.10.1016/j.enpol.2008.03.035

[30] Woo, C.-K., I. Horowitz, J. Moore, and A. Pacheco, “The Impact of Wind Generation on the Electricity Spot-Market Price Level and Variance: The Texas Experience,” Energy Policy, Vol. 39, 2011, pp. 3939~3944.10.1016/j.enpol.2011.03.084

[31] Wozabal, D., C. Graf, and D. Hirschmann, “The Effect of Intermittent Renewables on the Electricity Price Variance,” OR Spectrum, Vol. 38, 2016, pp. 687~709.10.1007/s00291-015-0395-x

[32] Würzburg, K., X. Labandeira, and P. Linares, “Renewable Generation and Electricity Prices: Taking Stock and New Evidence for Germany and Austria,” Energy Economics, Vol. 40, Supplement 1, 2013, pp. S159~S171.10.1016/j.eneco.2013.09.011

자원·환경경제연구 ISSN:1229-9146(Print) Environmental and Resource Economics Review

All Issue