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Research Paper

An Analysis of the Validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis in Vietnam

베트남에 대한 환경쿠즈네츠곡선 가설 적합성 분석 연구

진예림*‧김윤경**

Ye Rim Jin* and Yoon Kyung Kim**

*이화여자대학교 일반대학원 석사과정, 제1저자(e-mail: trantrang@ewhain.net)
**이화여자대학교 경제학과 교수, 교신저자(e-mail: yoonkkim@ewha.ac.kr)
*Master's Degree in Economics, The Graduate School Ewha Womans University, First author (e-mail: trantrang@ewhain.net)
**Professor, Department of Economics, Ewha Womans University, Corresponding author (e-mail: yoonkkim@ewha.ac.kr)
31 March 2026. pp. 109-134
PDF Citation
Abstract
This study analyzed the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis using annual data from 1990 to 2022 of Vietnam. In addition, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the Error Correction Model (ECM) were used to estimate the long- and short-term relationship between CO2 emissions, GDP, GDP2, energy consumption, and value-added in the manufacturing sector. According to the analysis results, there is the inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship of EKC in Vietnam. The turning point was estimated to be about $4,197. And in Vietnam, energy consumption per capita and its lag variables had a significant effect on CO2 emissions per capita in the short term, but not in the long term. And value-added in the manufacturing sector per capita had a significant effect on CO2 emissions per capita in the long term, but not in the short term. As economic growth occurs in Vietnam, there is no turning point that improves environmental quality, and the level continues to rise. This shows that the trade-off between economic growth and environmental equality is used rather than choosing sustainable methods. Therefore environmental quality must be improved for active sustainable growth from now on.
Keywords
Environmental kuznets curve
Vietnam
CO2 emissions
Value-added of manufacturing
본 연구는 베트남의 연도별 데이터(1990~2022년)를 이용하여 경제성장(GDP)과 CO2 배출량의 관계를 분석하고, 환경쿠즈네츠곡선(EKC) 가설의 타당성을 검증하였다. 분석에서는 CO2 배출량과 GDP, GDP2, 에너지소비량, 제조업 부문 부가가치 사이에 존재하는 장단기적 관계를 추정하기 위해 Autoregressive Distributed Lag(ARDL) 모형과 Error Correction Model(ECM)을 이용했다. 분석결과에 따르면, 베트남의 CO2 배출량과 GDP 사이에는 역U자형의 비선형 관계가 존재하고, EKC 가설이 설명력을 갖는다. EKC 전환점은 1인당 GDP 기준으로 4,197달러로 추정되었다. 그리고 베트남에서 1인당 에너지소비량과 그 시차변수들은 단기적으로 1인당 CO2 배출량에 유의한 영향을 미치지만, 장기적으로는 유의하지 않았다. 1인당 제조업 부가가치가 1인당 CO2 배출량에 미치는 영향은 단기적으로 유의하지 않았지만, 장기적으로는 유의했다. 분석기간을 연장했을 때, 베트남이 더 높은 경제성장을 달성하고 있었지만 CO2 배출량이 감소하는 모습을 확인할 수는 없었다. 베트남은 EKC의 소득전환점을 경과하여 더 높은 경제성장과 함께 환경질도 함께 개선되는 단계에 진입하지 않았고, 환경을 고려하는 지속가능한 경제성장방법을 선택하고 있지 않은 것을 시사한다. 베트남의 EKC 소득전환점이 점차 높게 추정되는 결과를 고려하면, 소득전환점에 도달하는 것을 기다리는 것이 아니라 지금부터 적극적으로 환경질을 개선하도록 대처하는 것이 필요하다.
키워드
환경쿠즈네츠곡선
베트남
CO2 배출량
제조업 부문 부가가치
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Information
  • Publisher :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
  • Publisher(Ko) :자원 · 환경경제연구
  • Journal Title :자원·환경경제연구
  • Journal Title(Ko) :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
  • Volume : 35
  • No :1
  • Pages :109-134
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.15266/KEREA.2026.35.1.109
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