Development of Climate Policy Uncertainty Index: Case of Korea

doi:10.15266/KEREA.2026.35.1.81

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2026 Vol.35, Issue 1 Preview Page Next Page

Research Paper

Development of Climate Policy Uncertainty Index: Case of Korea 기후 정책 불확실성 지수 개발: 한국의 사례: 박성대*‧염석현**‧김현학***
Sungdae Park*, Seokhyun Youm** and Hyun Hak Kim***; *연세대학교 통계데이터사이언스학과 석사과정, 제1저자(e-mail: psdae62@gmail.com)
**연세대학교 산업공학과 석사과정, 공저자(e-mail: shyoum0328@yonsei.ac.kr)
***국민대학교 경제학과 교수, 교신저자(e-mail: hyunhak.kim@kookmin.ac.kr)

*Graduate Student, Dept. of Statistics and Data Science, Yonsei University, First author (e-mail: psdae62@gmail.com)
**Graduate Student, Dept. of Industrial Engineering, Yonsei University, Coauthor (e-mail: shyoum0328@yonsei.ac.kr)
***Professor, Dept. of Economics, Kookmin University, Corresponding author (e-mail: hyunhak.kim@kookmin.ac.kr)

31 March 2026. pp. 81-108

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Abstract

This paper develops the first Climate Policy Uncertainty Index (CPU Index) for Korea and demonstrates how the index can be used to analyse the macro-economic consequences of policy uncertainty. Adapting Gavriilidis (2021), the authors scrape the full text of Yonhap News articles (Jan 2005 ~Dec 2024). Monthly counts of articles that simultaneously contain at least one term from each of three Korean keyword sets(uncertainty, climate, and policy) are divided by total article counts, standardised (σ=1), averaged and normalised (μ=100) to obtain the raw CPU series. Short-run noise is filtered with several techniques (simple/exponential moving averages, B-spline and kernel smoothers). A Gaussian kernel with a 120-month bandwidth balances trend visibility and event sensitivity and is recommended for practical use. The index responds sharply to landmark events such as the 2015 Paris Agreement, the 2017 U.S. withdrawal announcement and the 2019 global climate strike, confirming face validity. A four-variable VAR (CO₂ emissions, CPU, industrial production, fossil-energy consumption) with two lags shows that a one-standard-deviation CPU shock produces a statistically significant short-run decline in CO₂ emissions and fossil-energy use, while effects on industrial production are small and transitory. Impulse-response functions indicate that the emissions drop is front-loaded and largely dissipates within two years. Regular monitoring of the CPU Index can give policy-makers early warnings when uncertainty spikes. Enhancing the predictability and consistency of climate policy is crucial, because firms trim fossil-fuel use when uncertainty rises but reinstate it once the fog clears. The index can serve investors and ESG analysts as a forward-looking gauge of policy risk and as an input for stress-testing carbon-intensive assets.

Keywords

Climate policy uncertainty

Carbon emission

Vector autoregression (VAR)

본 연구는 한국형 기후 정책 불확실성 지수(CPU 지수)를 최초로 구축하고, 해당 지수를 활용하여 기후 정책 불확실성이 거시경제 변수에 미치는 영향을 실증적으로 분석하였다. Gavriilidis (2021)의 절차를 한국에 맞게 변형하였다. 2005년 1월부터 2024년 12월까지의 연합뉴스 기사 전체를 수집한 뒤, 불확실성‧기후‧정책 3개 한글 키워드 집합에서 각 1개 이상이 동시에 포함된 기사를 월별로 계수하여 전체 기사 수로 나누고, 언론사 표준화‧평균 100 정규화를 거쳐 원지수를 작성하였다. 단기 잡음을 제거하기 위해 이동평균, 지수평활, B-spline, 커널평활 등 네 가지 방법을 비교하였다. 120개월 대역폭의 커널 평활화가 단기 변동과 장기 추세를 균형 있게 포착해 최적 방법으로 제시되었다. 지수는 2015년 파리협정 채택, 2017년 미국 탈퇴 선언, 2019년 전 세계 기후파업 등 주요 이벤트 직후 급등하며 설명력을 확인하였다. CO₂ 배출량, CPU, 산업생산지수(IP), 화석에너지 소비량을 포함한 VAR(2) 분석 결과, CPU 충격은 단기적으로 CO₂ 배출과 화석연료 소비를 유의하게 감소시키지만 산업생산에는 일시적‧경미한 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 충격반응함수는 감소 효과가 초기 몇 개월에 집중되고 2년 내 소멸됨을 보여준다. CPU 지수의 상시 모니터링을 통해 정책 신뢰도 저하를 조기에 파악하고, 예측 가능성과 일관성을 높이는 방향으로 정책 설계가 필요하다. 불확실성 완화가 장기적 탄소저감 효과를 높일 수 있으며, 금융‧투자 부문에서도 지수를 활용한 리스크 관리가 요구된다.

키워드

기후 정책 불확실성

탄소 배출

벡터 자기회귀(VAR)

References

민선영‧최용옥, “월별 자료를 이용한 선도적인 에너지 분야 온실가스 배출량 산정”, ｢에너지경제연구｣, 제23권 제1호, 2024, pp. 21~48.
Baker, S. R., N. Bloom, and S. J. Davis, “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 131, No. 4, 2016, pp. 1593~1636. 10.1093/qje/qjw024
Barrett, S., Environment and Statecraft: The Strategy of Environmental Treaty-Making, Oxford University Press, 2003. 10.1108/meq.2003.14.5.622.3
Bloom, N., S. Bond, and J. Van Reenen, “Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics,” The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 74, No. 2, 2009, pp. 391~415. 10.1111/j.1467-937X.2007.00426.x
Bolton, P., and M. Kacperczyk, “Do Investors Care About Carbon Risk?” Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 142, No. 2, 2021, pp. 517~549. 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.05.008
Carattini, S., M. Carvalho, and S. Fankhauser, “Overcoming Public Resistance to Carbon Taxes,” Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 10, No. 4, 2019, e571.
Dietz, S., A. Bowen, C. Dixon, and P. Gradwell, “‘Climate Value at Risk’ of Global Financial Assets,” Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, No. 7, 2020, pp. 676~679. 10.1038/nclimate2972
Fankhauser, S., C. Gennaioli, and M. Collins, “The Political Economy of Passing Climate Change Legislation,” Global Environmental Change, Vol. 45, 2017, pp. 57~67.
Gavriilidis, K., Measuring Climate Policy Uncertainty, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3847388. 2021. 10.2139/ssrn.3847388
Hassler, J., and P. Krusell, “Economics and Climate Change: Integrated Assessment in a Multi-Region World,” Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 10, No. 5, 2012, pp. 974~1000. 10.1111/j.1542-4774.2012.01082.x
Helm, D., “Government Failure, Rent-Seeking, and Capture: The Design of Climate Change Policy,” Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 26, No. 2, 2010, pp. 182~196. 10.1093/oxrep/grq006
Jensen, S., K. Mohlin, K. Pittel, and T. Sterner, “An Introduction to the Green Paradox: The Unintended Consequences of Climate Policies,” Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Vol. 13, No. 2, 2019, pp. 239~257.
Kolstad, C. D., “Fundamental Irreversibilities in Stock Externalities,” Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 60, No. 2, 1996, pp. 221~233. 10.1016/0047-2727(95)01521-3
Marion, J., “Investment under Uncertainty in Renewable Energy: Implications of Policy Variability,” Energy Economics, Vol. 85, 2020, 104591.
Nordhaus, W., “Climate Clubs: Overcoming Free-Riding in International Climate Policy,” American Economic Review, Vol. 105, No. 4, 2015, pp. 1339~1370. 10.1257/aer.15000001
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Information

Publisher :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
Publisher(Ko) :자원 · 환경경제연구
Journal Title :자원·환경경제연구
Journal Title(Ko) :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
Volume : 35
No :1
Pages :81-108
DOI :https://doi.org/10.15266/KEREA.2026.35.1.81

[1] 민선영‧최용옥, “월별 자료를 이용한 선도적인 에너지 분야 온실가스 배출량 산정”, ｢에너지경제연구｣, 제23권 제1호, 2024, pp. 21~48.

[2] Baker, S. R., N. Bloom, and S. J. Davis, “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 131, No. 4, 2016, pp. 1593~1636. 10.1093/qje/qjw024

[3] Barrett, S., Environment and Statecraft: The Strategy of Environmental Treaty-Making, Oxford University Press, 2003. 10.1108/meq.2003.14.5.622.3

[4] Bloom, N., S. Bond, and J. Van Reenen, “Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics,” The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 74, No. 2, 2009, pp. 391~415. 10.1111/j.1467-937X.2007.00426.x

[5] Bolton, P., and M. Kacperczyk, “Do Investors Care About Carbon Risk?” Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 142, No. 2, 2021, pp. 517~549. 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.05.008

[6] Carattini, S., M. Carvalho, and S. Fankhauser, “Overcoming Public Resistance to Carbon Taxes,” Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 10, No. 4, 2019, e571.

[7] Dietz, S., A. Bowen, C. Dixon, and P. Gradwell, “‘Climate Value at Risk’ of Global Financial Assets,” Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, No. 7, 2020, pp. 676~679. 10.1038/nclimate2972

[8] Fankhauser, S., C. Gennaioli, and M. Collins, “The Political Economy of Passing Climate Change Legislation,” Global Environmental Change, Vol. 45, 2017, pp. 57~67.

[9] Gavriilidis, K., Measuring Climate Policy Uncertainty, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3847388. 2021. 10.2139/ssrn.3847388

[10] Hassler, J., and P. Krusell, “Economics and Climate Change: Integrated Assessment in a Multi-Region World,” Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 10, No. 5, 2012, pp. 974~1000. 10.1111/j.1542-4774.2012.01082.x

[11] Helm, D., “Government Failure, Rent-Seeking, and Capture: The Design of Climate Change Policy,” Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 26, No. 2, 2010, pp. 182~196. 10.1093/oxrep/grq006

[12] Jensen, S., K. Mohlin, K. Pittel, and T. Sterner, “An Introduction to the Green Paradox: The Unintended Consequences of Climate Policies,” Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Vol. 13, No. 2, 2019, pp. 239~257.

[13] Kolstad, C. D., “Fundamental Irreversibilities in Stock Externalities,” Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 60, No. 2, 1996, pp. 221~233. 10.1016/0047-2727(95)01521-3

[14] Marion, J., “Investment under Uncertainty in Renewable Energy: Implications of Policy Variability,” Energy Economics, Vol. 85, 2020, 104591.

[15] Nordhaus, W., “Climate Clubs: Overcoming Free-Riding in International Climate Policy,” American Economic Review, Vol. 105, No. 4, 2015, pp. 1339~1370. 10.1257/aer.15000001

[16] Pindyck, R. S., “Uncertainty in Environmental Economics,” Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Vol. 1, No. 1, 2007, pp. 45~65. 10.1093/reep/rem002

[17] Van der Ploeg, F., and A. Rezai, “Stranded Assets in the Transition to a Carbon-Free Economy,” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Vol. 82, 2016, pp. 142~165.

자원·환경경제연구 ISSN:1229-9146(Print) Environmental and Resource Economics Review

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