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2025 Vol.34, Issue 4 Preview Page

Research Paper

Divergence in Carbon Emissions Accounting: A Cross-Database Examination of GTAP and OECD ICIO within the Context of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)

GTAP 및 OECD ICIO 데이터베이스의 소비기준 탄소 배출량 비교 연구: 탄소국경조정제도(CBAM) 영향을 중심으로

신재은*‧김은영**‧김용건***

Jae Eun Shin*, Eun Young Kim**, and Yong-Gun Kim***

*연세대학교 언더우드국제대학 교수, 제1저자(e-mail: jshin0105@yonsei.ac.kr)
**연세대학교 국제학연구소 박사후연구원, 공저자(e-mail: eunyoung.kim@yonsei.ac.kr)
***연세대학교 국제학대학원 교수, 교신저자(e-mail: ygkim@yonsei.ac.kr)
*Professor, Underwood International College, Yonsei University, South Korea, First author (e-mail: jshin0105@yonsei.ac.kr)
**Postdoctoral Researcher, Center for International Studies, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea, Coauthor (e-mail: eunyoung.kim@yonsei.ac.kr)
***Professor, Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea, Corresponding author (e-mail: ygkim@yonsei.ac.kr)
31 December 2025. pp. 541-567
PDF Citation
Abstract
The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) introduces a carbon cost on imports, necessitating accurate carbon emissions accounting. Previous literature on uncertainties in Multi-Regional Input-Output Tables (MRIOTs) has traditionally focused on sector-aggregated cross-national discussions, often overlooking the implications of database selection at the sectoral level. This study addresses this gap by comparing discrepancies in emissions estimates from two widely used multi-regional input-output databases: the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database and the OECD’s Inter-Country Input-Output Tables (OECD ICIO). We examine country- and sector-level variations in emissions estimates under CBAM Scopes 1, 2, and 3. Results show significant disparities between databases. These findings highlight the significance of database selection in evaluating the economic and environmental impacts of CBAM and necessitates the development of more reliable MRIOTs and the sensitivity analyses with multiple sources of databases.
Keywords
Carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM)
GTAP
OECD ICIO
Carbon emissions
Multi-regional input-output tables (MRIOTs)
SDG 13 (Climate Action)
유럽연합의 탄소국경조정제도(CBAM)는 수입품에 탄소 비용을 부과하는 제도로, 정확한 탄소배출량 산정이 필수적이다. 기존 다지역산투입산출표(MRIOTs)에 관한 선행 연구는 주로 국가 간 부문 집계 수준에 초점을 맞추었으며, 데이터베이스 선택이 부문 수준에서 미치는 영향을 충분히 조명하지 못하였다. 본 연구는 널리 사용되는 두 가지 다지역산투입산출 데이터베이스인 GTAP(Global Trade Analysis Project)와 OECD ICIO(Inter-Country Input-Output Tables)를 비교하여, CBAM의 범위 1, 2, 3(Scope 1, 2, 3)에 따른 국가 및 산업 부문별 탄소배출량 산정의 차이를 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 두 데이터베이스 간에는 상당한 수준의 배출량 격차가 존재하였다. 이러한 결과는 CBAM의 경제적·환경적 영향을 평가함에 있어 데이터베이스 선택이 중요한 변수임을 보여주며, 보다 신뢰도 높은 MRIOT 구축과 다중 데이터 소스를 활용한 민감도 분석의 필요성을 시사한다.
키워드
탄소국경조정제도(CBAM)
GTAP(글로벌무역분석프로젝트)
OECD ICIO(OECD 국제산업연관표)
탄소배출
다지역산업연관표(MRIOTs)
지속가능발전목표 13(기후변화 대응)
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Information
  • Publisher :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
  • Publisher(Ko) :자원 · 환경경제연구
  • Journal Title :자원·환경경제연구
  • Journal Title(Ko) :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
  • Volume : 34
  • No :4
  • Pages :541-567
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.15266/KEREA.2025.34.4.541
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