All Issue

2025 Vol.34, Issue 3 Preview Page

Research Paper

Energy Prices and Export–Import Behavior: The Vietnam–Korea Perspective

에너지 가격과 수출입 행태: 베트남–한국의 관점

김민준*

Min-Joon Kim*

*부산가톨릭대학교 유통마케팅학과 조교수, 단독저자(e-mail: kimmj@cup.ac.kr)
*Assistant Professor, Department of Distribution Marketing, Catholic University of Pusan, Sole author (e-mail: kimmj@cup.ac.kr)
30 September 2025. pp. 379-403
PDF Citation
Abstract
This paper mainly aims to assess the short-run and long-run impacts of oil price shocks, along with macroeconomic variables, on imports and exports. We apply the Fourier autoregressive distributed lag (FARDL) model to examine the bilateral import and export functions between Vietnam and Korea over the period from January 2008 to December 2024. The results demonstrate that oil price shocks affect exports and imports only in the short run, with minimal long-run effects. Additionally, Korea’s real income is the key driver in the long-run export model, while Vietnam’s real income plays a major role in the short-run import model. The bilateral real exchange rate also proves significant in the long-run export function. These findings provide policymakers with valuable insights into the key factors influencing bilateral trade between Vietnam and Korea. Such insights can support the development of effective policies to address fluctuations in oil prices and other macroeconomic variables, thereby helping to maintain a balanced trade relationship.
Keywords
Bilateral trade
Crude oil price
FARDL
Korea
Vietnam
본 논문은 유가 충격과 거시경제 변수가 수입과 수출에 미치는 단기 및 장기적 영향을 평가하는 것을 주된 목적으로 한다. 2008년 1월부터 2024년 12월까지의 기간을 대상으로 베트남과 한국 간 양자 수출입 함수를 분석하기 위해 푸리에 자기회귀분산지연(Fourier autoregressive distributed lag - FARDL) 모형을 적용한다. 분석 결과, 유가 충격은 단기적으로 수출과 수입에 영향을 미치지만 장기적 효과는 제한적인 것으로 나타난다. 또한 장기 수출 모형에서는 한국의 실질소득이 핵심 요인으로 작용하는 반면, 단기 수입 모형에서는 베트남의 실질소득이 중요한 역할을 한다. 아울러 양국 간 실질환율 역시 장기 수출 함수에서 유의한 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인된다. 이러한 결과는 베트남과 한국 간 양자 무역에 영향을 미치는 주요 요인에 대한 중요한 시사점을 제공한다. 또한 유가 및 기타 거시경제 변수의 변동에 대응할 수 있는 효과적인 정책 수립을 지원하여 균형 잡힌 무역 관계 유지에 기여할 수 있다.
키워드
양자 무역
원유 가격
FARDL
한국
베트남
References
  1. Algaeed, A. H., “Symmetric oil price shocks and government expenditure-real exchange rate nexus: ARDL and SVAR models for an oil-based economy, 1970-2018,” Cogent Economics & Finance, Vol. 8, No. 1, 2020, pp. 1~18.10.1080/23322039.2020.1782076
  2. Allegret, J. -P., V. Mignon, and A. Sallenave, “Oil price shocks and global imbalances: Lessons from a model with trade and financial interdependencies,” Economic Modelling, Vol. 49, 2015, pp. 232~247.10.1016/j.econmod.2015.04.009
  3. Apergis, N., and P. Gangopadhyay, “The asymmetric relationships between pollution, energy use and oil prices in Vietnam: Some behavioural implications for energy policy-making,” Energy Policy, Vol. 140, 2020, 111430.10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111430
  4. Aydın, L., and M. Acar, “Economic impact of oil price shocks on the Turkish economy in the coming decades: A dynamic CGE analysis,” Energy Policy, Vol. 39, No. 3, 2011, pp. 1722~1731.10.1016/j.enpol.2010.12.051
  5. Baek, J., “Exchange rate effects on Korea–US bilateral trade: A new look,” Research in Economics, Vol. 68, No. 3, 2014, pp. 214~221.10.1016/j.rie.2014.05.002
  6. Baek, J., “Exchange rate sensitivity of Korea-US bilateral trade: Evidence from industrial trade data,” Journal of Korea Trade, Vol. 16, No. 3, 2012, pp. 1~21.
  7. Baek, J., and K. D. Kwon, “Asymmetric effects of oil price changes on the balance of trade: Evidence from selected African countries,” The World Economy, Vol. 42, No. 11, 2019, pp. 3235~3252.10.1111/twec.12844
  8. Baek, J., and S. Nam, “Korea–China Trade Dynamics: Exploring the Role of Crude Oil Prices,” The World Economy, Vol. 48, No. 4, 2025, pp. 862~885.10.1111/twec.13682
  9. Baek, J., and S. Nam, “The South Korea–China trade and the bilateral real exchange rate: Asymmetric evidence from 33 industries,” Economic Analysis and Policy, Vol. 71, 2021, pp. 463~475.10.1016/j.eap.2021.06.007
  10. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., and A. Gelan, “Exchange-rate volatility and international trade performance: Evidence from 12 African countries,” Economic Analysis and Policy, Vol. 58, 2018, pp. 14~21.10.1016/j.eap.2017.12.005
  11. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., and G. G. Goswami, “Exchange rate sensitivity of Japan’s bilateral trade flows,” Japan and the World Economy, Vol. 16, No. 1, 2004, pp. 1~15.10.1016/S0922-1425(03)00016-1
  12. Bahmani‐Oskooee, M., and Z. Ardalani, “Exchange rate sensitivity of US trade flows: evidence from industry data,” Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 72, No. 3, 2006, pp. 542~559.10.1002/j.2325-8012.2006.tb00719.x
  13. Başkaya, Y. S., T. Hülagü, and H. Küçük, “Oil price uncertainty in a small open economy,” IMF Economic Review, Vol. 61, No. 1, 2013, pp. 168~198.10.1057/imfer.2013.5
  14. Bernanke, B. S., “Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 98, No. 1, 1983, pp. 85~106.10.2307/1885568
  15. Bernanke, B. S., M. Gertler, M. Watson, C. A. Sims, and B. M. Friedman, “Systematic monetary policy and the effects of oil price shocks,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1997, No. 1, 1997, pp. 91~157.10.2307/2534702
  16. Berument, M. H., N. B. Ceylan, and N. Dogan, “The impact of oil price shocks on the economic growth of selected MENA1 countries,” The Energy Journal, Vol. 31, No. 1, 2010, pp. 149~176.10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-No1-7
  17. Bjørnland, H. C., “Oil price shocks and stock market booms in an oil exporting country,” Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 56, No. 2, 2009, pp. 232~254.10.1111/j.1467-9485.2009.00482.x
  18. Bodenstein, M., C. J. Erceg, and L. Guerrieri, “Oil shocks and external adjustment,” Journal of International Economics, Vol. 83, No. 2, 2011, pp. 168~184.10.1016/j.jinteco.2010.10.006
  19. Brown, S. P., and M. K. Yuecal, “Oil prices and US aggregate economic activity: a question of neutrality,” Economic and Financial Review-Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 1999, pp. 16~23.
  20. Bui, X. H., “World oil crisis and its impacts on the petroleum market and the economy of Vietnam,” International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Vol. 11, No. 2, 2021, pp. 40~48.10.32479/ijeep.10720
  21. Christopoulos, D. K., and M. A. Leon-Ledesma, “International output convergence, breaks, and asymmetric adjustment,” Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Vol. 15, No. 3, 2011, pp. 1~33.10.2202/1558-3708.1823
  22. Ebrahim, Z., O. R. Inderwildi, and D. A. King, “Macroeconomic impacts of oil price volatility: mitigation and resilience,” Frontiers in Energy, Vol. 8, No. 1, 2014, pp. 9~24.10.1007/s11708-014-0303-0
  23. Ferderer, J. P., “Oil price volatility and the macroeconomy,” Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 18, No. 1, 1996, pp. 1~26.10.1016/S0164-0704(96)80001-2
  24. Hamilton, J. D., “A neoclassical model of unemployment and the business cycle,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 96, No. 3, 1988, pp. 593~617.10.1086/261553
  25. Hamilton, J. D., “Oil and the macroeconomy since World War II,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 91, No. 2, 1983, pp. 228~248.10.1086/261140
  26. Hoa, N. T. L., “The impact of oil prices on the economy of Vietnam,” Journal of Economic Development, Vol. 22, No. 4, 2015, pp. 142~159. 10.24311/jed/2015.22.4.01
  27. Jung, H., and C. Park, “Stock market reaction to oil price shocks: A comparison between an oil-exporting economy and an oil-importing economy,” Journal of Economic Theory and Econometrics, Vol. 22, No. 3, 2011, pp. 1~29.
  28. Kilian, L., A. Rebucci, and N. Spatafora, “Oil shocks and external balances,” Journal of International Economics, Vol. 77, No. 2, 2009, pp. 181~194.10.1016/j.jinteco.2009.01.001
  29. Kim, M. -J., “Vietnam’s exports to Korea and the real exchange rate: Post-crisis evidence from the multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model,” Economic Analysis and Policy, Vol. 84, 2024, pp. 679~692.10.1016/j.eap.2024.09.017
  30. Kim, M. -J., R. S. Budiharseno, and T. T. Trung, “New insights into Korea’s trade relations: A comprehensive FNARDL analysis with 18 global partners,” Heliyon, Vol. 10, No. 21, 2024, e39696.10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e3969639524757PMC11546184
  31. Kirikkaleli, D., E. Sofuoğlu, and O. Ojekemi, “Does patents on environmental technologies matter for the ecological footprint in the USA? Evidence from the novel Fourier ARDL approach,” Geoscience Frontiers, Vol. 14, No. 4, 2023, 101564.10.1016/j.gsf.2023.101564
  32. Korhonen, I., and S. Ledyaeva, “Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil,” Energy Economics, Vol. 32, No. 4, 2010, pp. 848~856.10.1016/j.eneco.2009.11.005
  33. Lang, K., and B. R. Auer, “The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review,” The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 52, 2020, 100914.10.1016/j.najef.2019.01.011
  34. Le, T. -H., and Y. Chang, “Oil price shocks and trade imbalances,” Energy Economics, Vol. 36, 2013, pp. 78~96.10.1016/j.eneco.2012.12.002
  35. Le, V. T., and N. T. T. Vinh, “The impact of oil prices, real effective exchange rate and inflation on economic activity: Novel evidence for Vietnam,” Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, 2011, pp. 1~29.
  36. Ludlow, J., and W. Enders, “Estimating non-linear ARMA models using Fourier coefficients,” International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 16, No. 3, 2000, pp. 333~347.10.1016/S0169-2070(00)00048-0
  37. Moshiri, S., and E. Kheirandish, “Global impacts of oil price shocks: the trade effect,” Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 51, No. 1, 2024, pp. 126~144.10.1108/JES-08-2022-0455
  38. Nguyen, A. T., “The relationship between crude oil prices, energy consumption, trade openness and economic growth: An empirical study on Vietnam,” Journal of International Studies, Vol. 15, No. 2, 2022, pp. 94~106.10.14254/2071-8330.2022/15-2/7
  39. Özlale, Ü., and D. Pekkurnaz, “Oil prices and current account: A structural analysis for the Turkish economy,” Energy Policy, Vol. 38, No. 8, 2010, pp. 4489~4496.10.1016/j.enpol.2010.03.082
  40. Pesaran, M. H., Y. Shin, and R. J. Smith, “Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 16, No. 3, 2001, pp. 289~326.10.1002/jae.616
  41. Pham, T. T. T., and N. P. A. Le, “A mixed data sampling approach to the asymmetric impacts of world oil price on macroeconomic variables in Vietnam,” Journal of Economics and Development, Vol. 22, No. 2, 2020, pp. 311~324.10.1108/JED-03-2020-0017
  42. Pindyck, R. S., “Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment,” NBER Working Paper, 1990, w3307.10.3386/w3307
  43. Rafiq, S., P. Sgro, and N. Apergis, “Asymmetric oil shocks and external balances of major oil exporting and importing countries,” Energy Economics, Vol. 56, 2016, pp. 42~50.10.1016/j.eneco.2016.02.019
  44. Rasche, R. H., and J. A. Tatom, “Energy price shocks, aggregate supply and monetary policy: The theory and the international evidence,” In Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 14, No. 1, 1981, pp. 9~93.10.1016/0167-2231(81)90002-6
  45. Shin, Y., B. Yu, and M. Greenwood-Nimmo, “Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework,” Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications, 2014, pp. 281~314.10.1007/978-1-4899-8008-3_9
  46. Syed, Q. R., N. Apergis, and S. K. Goh, “The dynamic relationship between climate policy uncertainty and renewable energy in the US: Applying the novel Fourier augmented autoregressive distributed lags approach,” Energy, Vol. 275, 2023, 127383.10.1016/j.energy.2023.127383
  47. Tatom, J. A., “Are the macroeconomic effects of oil-price changes symmetric?,” In Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 28, No. 1, 1988, pp. 325~368.10.1016/0167-2231(88)90030-9
  48. Trang, N. T. N., T. N. Tho, and D. T. T. Hong, “The impact of oil price on the growth, inflation, unemployment and budget deficit of Vietnam,” International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Vol. 7, No. 3, 2017, pp. 42~49.
  49. Vatsa, P., and J. Baek, “Asymmetric effects of oil demand and oil supply shocks on New Zealand’s trade,” Resources Policy, Vol. 92, 2024, 104999.10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.104999
  50. Wang, Y., C. Wu, and L. Yang, “Oil price shocks and stock market activities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries,” Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol. 41, No. 4, 2013, pp. 1220~1239.10.1016/j.jce.2012.12.004
  51. Wu, X. F., and G. Q. Chen, “Global overview of crude oil use: From source to sink through inter-regional trade,” Energy Policy, Vol. 128, 2019, pp. 476~486.10.1016/j.enpol.2019.01.022
  52. Yilanci, V., S. Bozoklu, and M. S. Gorus, “Are BRICS countries pollution havens? Evidence from a bootstrap ARDL bounds testing approach with a Fourier function,” Sustainable Cities and Society, Vol. 55, 2020, 102035.10.1016/j.scs.2020.102035
  53. Zaghdoudi, T., K. Tissaoui, M. H. Maaloul, Y. Bahou, and N. Kammoun, “Asymmetric connectedness between oil price, coal and renewable energy consumption in China: Evidence from Fourier NARDL approach,” Energy, Vol. 285, 2023, 129416.10.1016/j.energy.2023.129416
Information
  • Publisher :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
  • Publisher(Ko) :자원 · 환경경제연구
  • Journal Title :자원·환경경제연구
  • Journal Title(Ko) :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
  • Volume : 34
  • No :3
  • Pages :379-403
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.15266/KEREA.2025.34.3.379
Journal Informaiton 자원·환경경제연구 자원·환경경제연구
E-Book
Manuscript Submission
한국환경경제학회
Manuscript Submission
한국자원경제학회
  • NRF
  • KISTI Current Status
  • KISTI Cited-by
  • crosscheck
  • orcid
  • open access
  • ccl
Journal Informaiton Journal Informaiton - close