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2025 Vol.34, Issue 4 Preview Page

Research Paper

Impact of Global Oil and Food Price Shocks on Inflation: Second-Round Effects Through Inflation Expectations

국제유가 및 식량가격 충격과 인플레이션: 기대인플레이션을 통한 2차효과 분석

이서진*‧유종민**

Seojin Lee* and Jongmin Yu**

*홍익대학교 경제학부 부교수, 제1저자(e-mail: sjlee@hongik.ac.kr)
**홍익대학교 경제학부 부교수, 교신저자(e-mail: yucono@hongik.ac.kr)
*Associate Professor, School of Economics, Hongik University, First author (e-mail: sjlee@hongik.ac.kr)
**Associate Professor, School of Economics, Hongik University, Corresponding author (e-mail: yucono@hongik.ac.kr)
31 December 2025. pp. 423-447
PDF Citation
Abstract
Using monthly data from January 2003 to December 2023, this paper examines the impact of commodity prices, including oil and food prices, on inflation in Korea. Using an SVAR model, we find that expected inflation is more responsive to fluctuations in international food prices than to changes in oil prices. While oil price shocks have a limited second-round effect, international food price shocks have the potential to generate further inflation through wage negotiations and price adjustments. These inflationary pressures arise not only from increased production costs but also from changes in expected inflation. These findings imply that fiscal policy, such as subsidies and tax cuts aimed at reducing direct production costs, can be more effective than monetary policy in reducing inflation when global oil prices rise. Conversely, responding to shocks to international food prices requires a monetary policy approach that firmly anchors inflation expectations, thereby avoiding prolonged spikes in inflation.
Keywords
Inflation expectations
Second-round effect
Commodity price
Monetary policy
본 연구에서는 2003년 1월부터 2023년 12월까지의 월별 자료를 사용하여 국제유가와 국제식량가격이 국내 물가에 미치는 영향을 분석한다. SVAR 모형과 대안적 상황(counterfactual case)을 설정하여 추정한 결과, 국제유가보다 국제식량가격에 대해 기대인플레이션이 더 크게 반응하는 것을 확인하였다. 또한, 국제유가 충격은 2차효과가 미미한 반면, 국제식량가격 충격은 생산비용 상승뿐만 아니라 기대인플레이션을 통해 임금 협상이나 가격 조정 과정을 거쳐 추가적인 물가 상승을 유발할 가능성이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 국제원자재 가격별로 기대인플레이션의 반응 정도뿐만 아니라 인플레이션으로의 전이가 다를 수 있음을 의미하며, 이를 고려한 물가 안정정책과 대응이 필요함을 시사한다.
키워드
국제원자재
국제유가
기대인플레이션
물가상승률
2차효과
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Information
  • Publisher :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
  • Publisher(Ko) :자원 · 환경경제연구
  • Journal Title :자원·환경경제연구
  • Journal Title(Ko) :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
  • Volume : 34
  • No :4
  • Pages :423-447
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.15266/KEREA.2025.34.4.423
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