The Analysis of the Potential Effects of Energy Conversion Policy Considering Environment

doi:10.15266/KEREA.2021.30.2.325

All Issue

2021 Vol.30, Issue 2 Preview Page Next Page

Research Paper

The Analysis of the Potential Effects of Energy Conversion Policy Considering Environment 환경을 고려한 에너지 전환정책의 잠재적 효과분석: 이명헌*
Myunghun Lee*; *인하대학교 국제통상학과 교수, 교신저자(e-mail: leemh@inha.ac.kr)

*Professor, Department of International Trade, Inha University, Corresponding author(e-mail: leemh@ inha.ac.kr)

30 June 2021. pp. 325-345

PDF

Abstract

In this paper, we empirically evaluate the potential performance of energy conversion policy and analyze its effects on power generation sector. We first examine the degree of substitutability between energy inputs by measuring the price elasticities of energy demands and then estimate the changes in CO₂ generation when the proportions of nuclear power plants and renewable power generation are increased. The shadow prices of nuclear power and renewable energy are calculated to compare the potential costs of power generation between the two energy sources. We analyze the impacts of the expansion of nuclear power plants and renewable power generation on power supply price. Nuclear and renewable energy were measured to be complementary to each other. The expansion of nuclear power plants has been more effective in reducing CO₂ emissions than increasing renewable power generation. In most years over 2002 to 2016, the impact of nuclear power expansion on the power supply price was generally higher than that of renewable power generation, with relatively large range of fluctuations.

Keywords

Energy Conversion Policy

Input Price Elasticity

Net CO₂ Change

Power Supply Price

본 논문은 원전 비중 축소와 신재생발전 비율 확대를 핵심 내용으로 하는 에너지 전환정책의 잠재적 성과를 실증적으로 평가하고 그 파급효과를 분석하고자 한다. 발전산업을 대상으로 에너지원 간 수요가격탄력성을 측정하여 그 대체 여부 및 정도를 조사한 후, 원전과 신재생발전 비중 확대 시 CO₂ 발생량 변화를 추산한다. 원자력과 신재생에너지의 암묵가격을 산출하여 두 에너지원간 전력생산의 잠재적 비용을 비교하고, 원전 혹은 신재생발전을 각각 늘릴 경우 전력공급가격에 미치는 파급효과에 대한 시뮬레이션 분석을 실시한다. 원자력과 신재생에너지는 서로 보완적인 것으로 측정되었다. 원전 확대가 신재생발전을 늘리는 것보다 CO₂ 감축하는 데 효과적인 것으로 나타났다. 2002~2016년 기간에 걸쳐 대부분 연도에서 원전 확대의 전력공급가격 파급효과는 대체로 신재생발전보다 높게 추산되었으며 변동 폭은 상대적으로 크게 나타났다.

키워드

에너지전환정책

요소가격탄력성

CO₂ 순변화량

전력공급가격

References

김수일, 『계량경제모형을 통한 발전부문의 연료대체에 관한 연구』, 에너지경제연구원, 2006.
박경원‧강성원, “에너지 세제 개편의 경제효과 분석: 에너지 부문의 상류탄소세와 하류탄소세에 대하여”, ｢환경정책｣, 제28권 제2호, 2020, pp. 49~77.
에너지경제연구원, “신정부 전원구성안 영향 분석”, ｢보도자료｣, 2017.
이명헌, “국내 제조업에 대한 비가격 신재생에너지의 암묵가격, 대체가능성, 생산성 파급효과 분석”, ｢자원‧환경경제연구｣, 제24권 제4호, 2015, pp. 727~745.
이명헌, “에너지-기후변화정책 연계를 위한 신재생발전의 성과분석: 제약비용함수접근법”, ｢자원‧환경경제연구｣, 제27권 제2호, 2018, pp. 339~362.
이명헌, 『탄소경제학』, 학현사, 2017.
이우평‧강상목‧이명헌, “신재생에너지 확대와 에너지 저감이 GDP에 미치는 영향”, ｢신재생에너지｣, 제14권 제3호, 2018, pp. 54~66.
최현정, “탈원전‧탈석탄 정책의 문제점: 그 경제성과 지속가능성은?”, ｢이슈브리프｣, 2018-05, 아산정책연구원, 2018.
현대경제연구원, “친환경 전력정책의 비용과 편익”, ｢VIP RETPOR｣, 17-27호, 2017.
Apergis, N. and J. E. Payne, “Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Commonwealth of Independent States,” Energy Economics, Vol. 31, 2009, pp. 641~647.10.1016/j.eneco.2009.01.011
Atkinson, S. E. and R. Halvorsen, “Parametric Efficiency Tests, Economies of Scale, and Input Demand in U.S. Electric Power Generation,” International Economic Review, Vol. 25, 1984, pp. 647~662.10.2307/2526224
Atkinson, S. E. and R. Halvorsen, “Parametric Tests for Static and Dynamic Equilibrium,” Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 85, 1998, pp. 33~50.10.1016/S0304-4076(97)00092-4
Berndt, E. R. and C. J. Morrison, “Capacity Utilization Measures: Underlying Economic Theory and an Alternative Approach,” American Economic Review, Vol. 71, 1981, pp. 48~52.
Brown, R. S. and L. R. Christensen, “Estimating Elasticities of Substitution in a Model of Partial Static Equilibrium: An Application to U.S. Agriculture 1947 to 1974,” in: E.R. Berndt and B.C. Field(eds.), Modeling and Measuring Natural Resource Substitution. Cambridge, Massachusetts: M.I.T. Press, 1982.
Chang, T., R. Gupta, R. Inglesi-Lotz, B. D. Simo-Kengne, D. Smithers, and A. B. Trembling, “Renewable Energy and Growth: Evidence from Heterogeneous Panel of G7 Countries Using Granger Causality,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 52, 2015, pp. 1405~1412.10.1016/j.rser.2015.08.022
Diewert, W. E., “Duality Approaches to Microeconomic Theory,” in: K.J. Arrow and M.D. Intriligator(eds.), Handbook of Mathematical Economics, Vol. 2. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1982.10.1016/S1573-4382(82)02007-4
Ellis, G. M. and R. Halvorsen, “Estimation of Market Power in a Nonrenewable Resource Industry,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 110, 2002, pp. 883~899.10.1086/340777
Gollop, F. M. and M. J. Roberts, “Environmental Regulations and Productivity Growth: The Case of Fossil-fueled Electric Power Generation,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 91, 1983, pp. 654~674.10.1086/261170
Halvorsen, R. and T. R. Smith, “Substitution Possibilities for Unpriced Natural Resources: Restricted Cost function for the Canadian Metal Mining Industry,” Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 68, 1986, pp. 398~405.10.2307/1926016
Kmenta, J., Elements of Econometrics, NY: Macmillan, 1986.
Lau, L. J., “A Characterization of the Normalized Restricted Profit Function,” Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 12, 1976, pp. 131~163.10.1016/0022-0531(76)90030-2
Lee, M., “The Effect of Sulfur Regulations on the U.S. Electric Power Industry: A Generalized Cost Approach,” Energy Economics, Vol. 24, 2002, pp. 491~508.10.1016/S0140-9883(02)00011-7
Lee, M., “Environmental Regulations and Market Power: The Case of the Korean Manufacturing Industries,” Ecological Economics, Vol. 68, 2008, pp. 205~209.10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.02.017
Lee, M., “Allocative Efficiency, Potential Cost Savings, and Power Supply Price Markdown in Korean Electric Power Sector,” Energy and Environment, Vol. 30, 2019, pp. 617~628.10.1177/0958305X18802767
McFadden, D., “Cost, Revenue, and Profit Functions,” in: M. Fuss and D. McFadden(eds.), Production Economics: A Dual Approach to Theory and Application, Vol. 1. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1978.
Sadorsky, P., “Renewable Energy Consumption and Income in Emerging Economies,” Energy Policy, Vol. 37, 2009, pp. 4021~4028.10.1016/j.enpol.2009.05.003

Information

Publisher :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
Publisher(Ko) :자원 · 환경경제연구
Journal Title :자원·환경경제연구
Journal Title(Ko) :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
Volume : 30
No :2
Pages :325-345
DOI :https://doi.org/10.15266/KEREA.2021.30.2.325

[1] 김수일, 『계량경제모형을 통한 발전부문의 연료대체에 관한 연구』, 에너지경제연구원, 2006.

[2] 박경원‧강성원, “에너지 세제 개편의 경제효과 분석: 에너지 부문의 상류탄소세와 하류탄소세에 대하여”, ｢환경정책｣, 제28권 제2호, 2020, pp. 49~77.

[3] 에너지경제연구원, “신정부 전원구성안 영향 분석”, ｢보도자료｣, 2017.

[4] 이명헌, “국내 제조업에 대한 비가격 신재생에너지의 암묵가격, 대체가능성, 생산성 파급효과 분석”, ｢자원‧환경경제연구｣, 제24권 제4호, 2015, pp. 727~745.

[5] 이명헌, “에너지-기후변화정책 연계를 위한 신재생발전의 성과분석: 제약비용함수접근법”, ｢자원‧환경경제연구｣, 제27권 제2호, 2018, pp. 339~362.

[6] 이명헌, 『탄소경제학』, 학현사, 2017.

[7] 이우평‧강상목‧이명헌, “신재생에너지 확대와 에너지 저감이 GDP에 미치는 영향”, ｢신재생에너지｣, 제14권 제3호, 2018, pp. 54~66.

[8] 최현정, “탈원전‧탈석탄 정책의 문제점: 그 경제성과 지속가능성은?”, ｢이슈브리프｣, 2018-05, 아산정책연구원, 2018.

[9] 현대경제연구원, “친환경 전력정책의 비용과 편익”, ｢VIP RETPOR｣, 17-27호, 2017.

[10] Apergis, N. and J. E. Payne, “Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Commonwealth of Independent States,” Energy Economics, Vol. 31, 2009, pp. 641~647.10.1016/j.eneco.2009.01.011

[11] Atkinson, S. E. and R. Halvorsen, “Parametric Efficiency Tests, Economies of Scale, and Input Demand in U.S. Electric Power Generation,” International Economic Review, Vol. 25, 1984, pp. 647~662.10.2307/2526224

[12] Atkinson, S. E. and R. Halvorsen, “Parametric Tests for Static and Dynamic Equilibrium,” Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 85, 1998, pp. 33~50.10.1016/S0304-4076(97)00092-4

[13] Berndt, E. R. and C. J. Morrison, “Capacity Utilization Measures: Underlying Economic Theory and an Alternative Approach,” American Economic Review, Vol. 71, 1981, pp. 48~52.

[14] Brown, R. S. and L. R. Christensen, “Estimating Elasticities of Substitution in a Model of Partial Static Equilibrium: An Application to U.S. Agriculture 1947 to 1974,” in: E.R. Berndt and B.C. Field(eds.), Modeling and Measuring Natural Resource Substitution. Cambridge, Massachusetts: M.I.T. Press, 1982.

[15] Chang, T., R. Gupta, R. Inglesi-Lotz, B. D. Simo-Kengne, D. Smithers, and A. B. Trembling, “Renewable Energy and Growth: Evidence from Heterogeneous Panel of G7 Countries Using Granger Causality,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 52, 2015, pp. 1405~1412.10.1016/j.rser.2015.08.022

[16] Diewert, W. E., “Duality Approaches to Microeconomic Theory,” in: K.J. Arrow and M.D. Intriligator(eds.), Handbook of Mathematical Economics, Vol. 2. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1982.10.1016/S1573-4382(82)02007-4

[17] Ellis, G. M. and R. Halvorsen, “Estimation of Market Power in a Nonrenewable Resource Industry,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 110, 2002, pp. 883~899.10.1086/340777

[18] Gollop, F. M. and M. J. Roberts, “Environmental Regulations and Productivity Growth: The Case of Fossil-fueled Electric Power Generation,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 91, 1983, pp. 654~674.10.1086/261170

[19] Halvorsen, R. and T. R. Smith, “Substitution Possibilities for Unpriced Natural Resources: Restricted Cost function for the Canadian Metal Mining Industry,” Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 68, 1986, pp. 398~405.10.2307/1926016

[20] Kmenta, J., Elements of Econometrics, NY: Macmillan, 1986.

[21] Lau, L. J., “A Characterization of the Normalized Restricted Profit Function,” Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 12, 1976, pp. 131~163.10.1016/0022-0531(76)90030-2

[22] Lee, M., “The Effect of Sulfur Regulations on the U.S. Electric Power Industry: A Generalized Cost Approach,” Energy Economics, Vol. 24, 2002, pp. 491~508.10.1016/S0140-9883(02)00011-7

[23] Lee, M., “Environmental Regulations and Market Power: The Case of the Korean Manufacturing Industries,” Ecological Economics, Vol. 68, 2008, pp. 205~209.10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.02.017

[24] Lee, M., “Allocative Efficiency, Potential Cost Savings, and Power Supply Price Markdown in Korean Electric Power Sector,” Energy and Environment, Vol. 30, 2019, pp. 617~628.10.1177/0958305X18802767

[25] McFadden, D., “Cost, Revenue, and Profit Functions,” in: M. Fuss and D. McFadden(eds.), Production Economics: A Dual Approach to Theory and Application, Vol. 1. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1978.

[26] Sadorsky, P., “Renewable Energy Consumption and Income in Emerging Economies,” Energy Policy, Vol. 37, 2009, pp. 4021~4028.10.1016/j.enpol.2009.05.003

자원·환경경제연구 ISSN:1229-9146(Print) Environmental and Resource Economics Review

All Issue