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Research Paper

Domestic Social Cost of Carbon: Concept and Estimation for South Korea

국내 탄소의 사회적 비용: 개념과 추정

유종현*‧황인창**‧유지원***

Jonghyun Yoo*, In Chang Hwang** and Jiwon Ryu***

*서울대학교 행정대학원 조교수, 서울대학교 한국행정연구소 겸무연구원, 서울대학교 환경대학원 겸무교수, 제1저자(e-mail: jonghyun.yoo@snu.ac.kr)
**서울연구원 탄소중립센터 연구위원, 공저자(e-mail: ichwang@si.re.kr)
***서울대학교 한국행정연구소 선임연구원, 교신저자(e-mail: jiwonryu@snu.ac.kr)
* Assistant Professor, Graduate School of Public Administration, Seoul National University,
Adjunct Researcher, The Korea Institute of Public Affairs, Seoul National University,
Adjunct Professor, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, First author (e-mail: jonghyun.yoo@snu.ac.kr)
** Research Fellow, Carbon Neutrality Research Center, The Seoul Institute, Coauthor (e-mail: ichwang@si.re.kr)
*** Senior Researcher, The Korea Institute of Public Affairs, Seoul National University, Corresponding author (e-mail: jiwonryu@snu.ac.kr)
31 March 2026. pp. 25-50
PDF Citation
Abstract
The social cost of carbon (SCC) is the present value of marginal climate damages caused by an additional ton of greenhouse-gas emissions. While the SCC used in regulatory analysis and cost–benefit evaluation is typically the global SCC (GSCC), which aggregates damages worldwide, national policy appraisal and damage assessment within legal and administrative jurisdictions often call for a more direct measure—the domestic SCC (DSCC), which counts only damages accruing to a specific country or region. This paper defines DSCC in an analytical framework and clarifies its relationship to GSCC. We then extend the U.S. federal government’s SCC estimation framework to produce probabilistic DSCC estimates that incorporate uncertainty in climate sensitivity, socioeconomic (emissions) scenarios, and discounting. Using an ensemble of four climate–economy integrated assessment models (RICE, FUND, PAGE, and WITCH), we estimate Korea’s DSCC in 2025 to be 2.9 thousand KRW per ton of CO2eq, with a 5–95% range of –1 to 13.3 thousand KRW per ton. The paper provides theoretical and empirical foundations for applying DSCC to domestic climate policy cost–benefit analysis and damage quantification in climate litigation.
Keywords
Domestic social cost of carbon
Social cost of carbon
Integrated assessment model
Climate damage
Cost-benefit analysis
탄소의 사회적 비용(Social Cost of Carbon, SCC)은 온실가스 1톤 추가 배출이 초래하는 한계 기후피해의 현재가치이다. 행정규제, 비용편익분석 등에서 널리 쓰이는 SCC는 전 지구적 피해를 합산한 GSCC(Global SCC)이나, 국가의 비용‧편익 평가나 법‧행정적 관할권 내 손해 산정에는 특정 국가(지역)에 귀착되는 피해만을 반영한 국내 SCC(Domestic SCC, DSCC)가 더 직접적인 지표가 될 수 있다. 본 연구는 분석적 모형을 통해 DSCC를 정의하고 GSCC와 DSCC를 구분한다. 이어서 미국 연방정부의 산정 체계를 확장하여, 기후민감도, 사회‧경제(배출) 시나리오, 할인율의 불확실성을 반영한 확률론적 DSCC 추정을 수행한다. RICE‧FUND‧PAGE‧WITCH 등 4개 기후-경제 통합평가모형을 활용한 앙상블 결과 2025년 한국의 DSCC는 평균 2.9천 원/톤CO2eq이며, 5~95% 범위는 –1천~13.3천 원/톤CO2eq로 추정된다. 본 연구는 국내 기후정책의 비용편익분석, 기후 소송의 손해배상 산정 등에 적용 가능한 DSCC의 이론적‧실증적 근거를 제시하였다는 데 의의가 있다.
키워드
국내 탄소의 사회적 비용
탄소의 사회적 비용
기후-경제 통합평가모형
기후변화 피해비용
비용편익분석
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  • Publisher :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
  • Publisher(Ko) :자원 · 환경경제연구
  • Journal Title :자원·환경경제연구
  • Journal Title(Ko) :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
  • Volume : 35
  • No :1
  • Pages :25-50
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.15266/KEREA.2026.35.1.25
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