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2023 Vol.32, Issue 4 Preview Page

Research Paper

Asymmetric Price Responses of Industrial Energy Demand in Korea

산업부문 에너지 수요의 비대칭 가격반응

신석하*

Sukha Shin*

*숙명여자대학교 경제학부 교수, 주저자(e-mail: shin89kr@gmail.com)
*Professor, Division of Economics, Sookmyung Women’s University, First author (e-mail: shin89kr@gmail.com)
31 December 2023. pp. 267~292
PDF Citation
Abstract
In this paper, we estimate a time series model of energy demand in the industrial sector with an asymmetric response to energy prices. Including the asymmetric response to energy prices in the model strengthens robustness of the cointegration relationship and reduces the variation of the estimated coefficients across the estimating methods. We find that rising energy prices have a larger impact on energy demand than falling energy prices, with the largest impact occurring when energy prices rise to new highs. The estimation results are partially improved when using gross output rather than value added as a measure of production. Using single equation methods to estimate the asymmetric response model, the elasticity of gross output ranged from 1.05 to 1.09 and the elasticity of price-rise ranged from ‒0.48 to ‒0.56, which is similar to the results of international studies.
Keywords
Industrial energy demand
Asymmetric price responses
Cointegration analysis
본 논문에서는 에너지 가격에 대한 비대칭 반응을 중심으로 산업부문의 에너지 수요 모형을 시계열 방법으로 추정하였다. 에너지 가격에 대한 비대칭 반응을 모형에 포함하는 경우, 공적분 관계가 강건해지고 추정계수의 방법 간 편차도 줄어들었다. 에너지 가격이 하락할 때보다 상승할 때 에너지 수요에 더 큰 영향을 미치며, 특히 에너지 가격이 기존 최고치를 경신할 정도로 상승할 때 영향이 가장 큰 것으로 나타났다. 한편 생산지표로 부가가치보다 총산출 자료를 사용하는 경우에 추정결과가 부분적으로 개선되었다. 단일회귀식 추정방법으로 비대칭 반응모형을 추정하면, 총산출의 탄력성이 1.05~1.09, 가격상승의 탄력성이 ‒0.48~‒0.56으로 해외 연구에서 제시하는 결과와 유사한 수준으로 나타났다.
키워드
산업부문 에너지 수요
에너지 가격 비대칭 반응
공적분 분석
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Information
  • Publisher :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
  • Publisher(Ko) :자원 · 환경경제연구
  • Journal Title :자원·환경경제연구
  • Journal Title(Ko) :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
  • Volume : 32
  • No :4
  • Pages :267~292
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.15266/KEREA.2023.32.4.267
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