자원·환경경제연구 ISSN:1229-9146(Print) Environmental and Resource Economics Review

This paper estimates the effects of generation mix changes in the 7^th and 8^th Basic Plan for Long-term Power Supply and Demand from two aspects: economic efficiency through electricity prices and environmental performance through CO₂ and air pollutants(NOx, SOx, PM) emissions. Particularly, we examined additional generation mix conversion paths that take into account the trade-off between economic efficiency and environmental performance through scenario analysis. According to our results, the conversion from the 7^th plan to the 8^th plan should increase the electricity prices in the mid- and long-term, while reducing GHG and air pollutants emissions at the same time. The alternative generation mix that combines 7^th and 8^th plans shows that there exists a path to mitigate the trade-off between economic and environmental in the long-term. It will be next to impossible to derive a optimal generation mix that simultaneously considers the core values, such as supply stability, environmental performance, economic efficiency, energy safety and energy security, when establishing the power supply and demand plan. However, by exploring the effects of various generation mix paths and suggesting near-optimal paths, people can best choose their direction after weighhing all the paths when deciding on a forward-looking generation mix in the long term.