Environmental and Economic Impact of EV and FCEV Penetration into the Automobile Industry: A CGE Approach

doi:10.15266/KEREA.2019.28.2.231

All Issue

2019 Vol.28, Issue 2 Preview Page Next Page

Research Paper

Environmental and Economic Impact of EV and FCEV Penetration into the Automobile Industry: A CGE Approach 전기 및 수소차 보급 확산의 환경적･경제적 영향분석: 계산가능일반균형모형(CGE)의 적용: 한택환*, 임동순**, 김진태***
Taek-Whan Han*, Dongsoon Lim**, and Jintae Kim***; *서경대학교 금융경제학과 교수, 제1저자(e-mail: twhan@skuniv.ac.kr)
**동의대학교 경제학과 교수, 교신저자(e-mail: dslim@sdeu.ac.kr)
***KAIST 경영대학원 지속발전연구센터 연구원, 공동저자(e-mail: kimjintae9011@kaist.ac.kr)

*Professor, Department of Economics and Finance, SeoKyeong University, First author(e-mail: twhan@skuniv.ac.kr)
**Professor, Department of Economics, Dongeui University, Corresponding author(e-mail: dslim@sdeu. ac.kr)
***Researcher, Sustainable Development Research Center, College of Business, KAIST, Co-author(e-mail:kimjintae9011@kaist.ac.kr)

30 June 2019. pp. 231~276

PDF

Abstract

This paper analyzed the impact of the penetration of EV(electric vehicle) and FCEV(fuel cell electric vehicle) into the automobile industry, using a static CGE approach. There are contrasting view on the economic impact of EV/FCEV penetration: negative economic impact due to shrunken intermediate inputs versus positive impact because of input saving technical progress. Regarding environment, there is no clear consensus whether EV or FCEV will contribute to the reduction of CO2 emissions in Korea. This study attempts to provide an answer to these questions. By giving shocks to the input coefficients of automobile industries and automobile using sectors, as well as to the final demands for energies. we integrated the Bass diffusion model into the CGE framework, The result suggests that the EV penetration has adverse impact on the CO2 emission while the FCEV penetration has positive impact. On the other hand, both EV and FCEV have positive impacts on GDP. When considering automobile manufacturing sectors only, adverse impacts on CO2 are demonstrated both for EV and FCEV. However, since the size of CO2 increase is small, these results does not alter the overall effects.

Keywords

FCEV

CGE

input coefficient

penetration

CO2

GDP

본 연구는 정태적 계산가능일반균형 모형을 사용하여 전기 및 수소차 도입이 국내총생산과 이산화탄소 배출 등에 미치는 영향을 분석하고 평가하였다. 전기 및 수소차 확산이 경제에 미치는 영향에 대한 기존의 견해는 투입구조가 투입절약적으로 변화하기 때문에 경제에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있다는 견해와 전기 및 수소차의 투입절약적 기술진보가 경제에 긍정적인 영향을 준다는 견해가 병존하고 있다. 또한 전기 및 수소차 도입이 가져올 이산화탄소 배출에 관하여서도 분명한 결론은 부재하다. 본 연구는 이러한 전기차･수소차의 환경적･경제적 영향에 대한 견해의 불일치에 대한 하나의 답을 모색하기 위한 시도이다. 본 연구는 전기차 및 수소차가 자동차산업 내에서의 확산에 대한 Bass 모형의 결과를 계산가능일반균형모형(CGE)에 충격으로 통합시키는 방식의 접근을 취하였다. 자동차산업과 자동차 사용 산업의 투입계수와 에너지 최종수요의 변화를 충격으로 주는 계산가능일반균형모형 분석을 통하여 경제･환경적 영향을 추정한 결과 전기차는 이산화탄소 배출 면에서 부정적인 영향을 주고 반면에 수소차는 이산화탄소 배출을 감소시키며, 국내총생산 면에서는 전기차와 수소차 공히 긍정적인 영향을 가져오는 것으로 나타났다. 수소차는 전기차보다 이산화탄소와 국내총생산 면에서 우위를 가지고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 전기차･수소차의 이산화탄소 배출량 변화패턴은 다음과 같이 설명된다. 자동차 사용부문 이산화탄소 배출 측면에서 전기차는 배출량 소폭 증대, 수소차는 소폭 감소라는 상반된 결과를 보인다. 그러나 전기차 수소차 공히 자동차 제조 관련 부문에서의 이산화탄소 배출이 증대하는 것으로 나타나고 있으나 이 증가 폭이 자동차 사용부문에서의 변화의 크기보다 상당히 작다. 전기차･수소차의 이산화탄소 배출 패턴은 이 두 가지 효과가 결합하여 나타난 것으로 해석된다.

키워드

전기차

수소차

계산가능일반균형모형(CGE)

투입계수

확산

이산화탄소

국내총생산

References

관계부처 합동, ｢제3차 환경친화적자동차 개발 및 보급 기본계획｣, 2015.
온실가스 종합정보센터, ｢2017 국가온실가스 인벤토리 보고서｣, 2018.
전력거래소 웹사이트 (https://www.kpx.or.kr/www/contents.do?key=222 )
채현석, “Bass 확산 모형을 이용한 전기자동차 수요 예측”, 경북대학교 대학원 경영학과 석사학위 논문, 2013.
채현석‧정재우‧김종달, “Bass 확산 모형을 이용한 전기자동차 수요 예측”, ｢환경정책｣ 제24권 제1호, 2016, pp. 109~132.
한국가스공사, ｢수소 및 전기차 본격 도입이 국내 수송용 유류세 부과와 국내 탄소배출에 미치는 영향 분석｣, 연구용역보고서, 2017.
한국산업기술평가관리원, “수소연료전지차의 시장 도래”, ｢KEIT PD Issue Report｣ Vol.15-7, 2015.
Antoszewski, M., “Assessment of energy-related technological shocks within a CGE model: Does the aggregation bias matter?,” unpublished working paper, 2017.
Bass, F. M., “A new product growth for model consumer durables. Management science,” Vol. 15, No. 5, 1969, pp. 215~227.10.1287/mnsc.15.5.215
Bjertnaes, G. H., “Are tax exemptions for electric cars an efficient climate policy measure?,” Discussion Papers No. 743, Statistics Norway Research department, May 2013.
Brown, M., “Catching the PHEVer: simulating electric vehicle diffusion with an agent-based mixed logit model of vehicle choice.” Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Vol. 16, No. 2, 2013, pp. 1~5.10.18564/jasss.2127
Cordill, Aaron. Development of a diffusion model to study the greater PEV market. Diss. University of Akron, 2012.
Dixon, P. B., Orani, A multisectoral model of the Australian economy (Vol. 142). North Holland, 1982.
Dixon, Peter B. and Maureen T. Rimmer, Forecasting with a CGE model: Does it Work?, General Paper No. G-197, The Centre of Policy Studies (COPS), Monash University, May 2009.
Ghersi, Frédéric, Macroeconomic modelling of electric cars penetration in EU28. CIRED Working Paper. 2015.
Horridge, M., “ORANI-G: A generic single-country computable general equilibrium model.” Centre of Policy Studies and Impact Project, Victoria Univerity, Australia, 2005.
Hutagalung, Aldi Martino. The economic value of Indonesia's natural gas: a quantitative assessment of three gas policies. Universiteit Twente, 2014.
IEA, Energy Technology Perspective 2010: Scenarios and Strategies to 2050, 2010.
IEA, Energy Technology Perspective 2012: Pathways to Clean Energy Systems, 2012.
Jensen, A. F., E. Cherchi, S. L. Mabit, and J. D. D. Ortúzar, “Predicting the potential market for electric vehicles.” Transportation Science, Vol. 51, No. 2, 2017, pp. 427~440.10.1287/trsc.2015.0659
Jochem, Eberhard, Elna Schirrmeister, and Frank Marscheider-Weidemann, “4. Potential economic impacts of fuel cell technologies,” A chapter in Arman Avadikyan, Patrick Cohendet, Jean-Alain Héraud eds., The Economic Dynamics of Fuel Cell Technologies, Springer, 2003.10.1007/978-3-540-24822-4_5<
Leurent, F. and W. Elisabeth, “Benefits and costs of electric vehicles for the public finances: An integrated valuation model based on input–output analysis, with application to France.” Research in Transportation Economics, Vol. 50, 2015, pp. 51~62.10.1016/j.retrec.2015.06.006
Massiani, J. and G. Andreas, “The choice of Bass model coefficients to forecast diffusion for innovative products: An empirical investigation for new automotive technologies.” Research in Transportation Economics, Vol. 50, 2015, pp. 17~28.10.1016/j.retrec.2015.06.003
McCoy, D. and L. Seán, “Consumer preferences and the influence of networks in electric vehicle diffusion: An agent-based micro-simulation in Ireland.” Energy Research & Social Science, Vol. 3, 2014, pp. 89~101.10.1016/j.erss.2014.07.008
Miyata, Y., H. Shibusawa, and T. Fujii, “Economic and Environmental Impacts of Electric Vehicle Society in Toyohashi City in Japan - A CGE Modeling Approach -,” 54th Congress of the European Regional Science Association: “Regional development & globalisation: Best practices,” 26-29 August 2014, St. Petersburg, Russia, European Regional Science Association (ERSA), Louvain-la-Neuve, 2014.
Osawa, J. and M. Nakano, “The Impact of the Popularization of Clean Energy Vehicles on Employment,” Procedia CIRP, Vol. 47, 2016, pp. 478~482.10.1016/j.procir.2016.03.052
Osawa, J. and M. Nakano, “A model of the economic ripple effect caused by the spread of clean energy vehicles.” Trans. Jpn. Soc. Mech. Eng, Vol. 81, No. 823, 2015, p.14-00071.10.1299/transjsme.14-00071
Park, S. Y., J. W. Kim, and D. H. Lee, “Development of a market penetration forecasting model for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles considering infrastructure and cost reduction effects.” Energy Policy, Vol. 39, No. 6, 2011, pp. 3307~3315.10.1016/j.enpol.2011.03.021
Schmelzer, Stefan, and Michael Miess, “The Economic Costs of Electric Vehicles.” DEFINE Working Paper, 2015.
van Meij, Hans and Frank van Tongeren, “Endogenous International Technology Spillovers and Biased Technical Change in the GTAP Model,” GTAP Technical Paper, No. 15, January 1999.
Wenger, J. and E. Schirrmesiter, The innovation process from internal combustion to fuel cells - Chances and risks for the industry of Baden-Württemberg, FhG-ISI, Karlsruhe, 2000.
Yusuf and Resosudarmo, “Searching for Equitable Energy Price Reform for Indonesia,” MPRA Paper, No. 2350, 2007.

Information

Publisher :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
Publisher(Ko) :자원 · 환경경제연구
Journal Title :자원·환경경제연구
Journal Title(Ko) :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
Volume : 28
No :2
Pages :231~276
DOI :https://doi.org/10.15266/KEREA.2019.28.2.231

[1] 관계부처 합동, ｢제3차 환경친화적자동차 개발 및 보급 기본계획｣, 2015.

[2] 온실가스 종합정보센터, ｢2017 국가온실가스 인벤토리 보고서｣, 2018.

[3] 전력거래소 웹사이트 (https://www.kpx.or.kr/www/contents.do?key=222 )

[4] 채현석, “Bass 확산 모형을 이용한 전기자동차 수요 예측”, 경북대학교 대학원 경영학과 석사학위 논문, 2013.

[5] 채현석‧정재우‧김종달, “Bass 확산 모형을 이용한 전기자동차 수요 예측”, ｢환경정책｣ 제24권 제1호, 2016, pp. 109~132.

[6] 한국가스공사, ｢수소 및 전기차 본격 도입이 국내 수송용 유류세 부과와 국내 탄소배출에 미치는 영향 분석｣, 연구용역보고서, 2017.

[7] 한국산업기술평가관리원, “수소연료전지차의 시장 도래”, ｢KEIT PD Issue Report｣ Vol.15-7, 2015.

[8] Antoszewski, M., “Assessment of energy-related technological shocks within a CGE model: Does the aggregation bias matter?,” unpublished working paper, 2017.

[9] Bass, F. M., “A new product growth for model consumer durables. Management science,” Vol. 15, No. 5, 1969, pp. 215~227.10.1287/mnsc.15.5.215

[10] Bjertnaes, G. H., “Are tax exemptions for electric cars an efficient climate policy measure?,” Discussion Papers No. 743, Statistics Norway Research department, May 2013.

[11] Brown, M., “Catching the PHEVer: simulating electric vehicle diffusion with an agent-based mixed logit model of vehicle choice.” Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Vol. 16, No. 2, 2013, pp. 1~5.10.18564/jasss.2127

[12] Cordill, Aaron. Development of a diffusion model to study the greater PEV market. Diss. University of Akron, 2012.

[13] Dixon, P. B., Orani, A multisectoral model of the Australian economy (Vol. 142). North Holland, 1982.

[14] Dixon, Peter B. and Maureen T. Rimmer, Forecasting with a CGE model: Does it Work?, General Paper No. G-197, The Centre of Policy Studies (COPS), Monash University, May 2009.

[15] Ghersi, Frédéric, Macroeconomic modelling of electric cars penetration in EU28. CIRED Working Paper. 2015.

[16] Horridge, M., “ORANI-G: A generic single-country computable general equilibrium model.” Centre of Policy Studies and Impact Project, Victoria Univerity, Australia, 2005.

[17] Hutagalung, Aldi Martino. The economic value of Indonesia's natural gas: a quantitative assessment of three gas policies. Universiteit Twente, 2014.

[18] IEA, Energy Technology Perspective 2010: Scenarios and Strategies to 2050, 2010.

[19] IEA, Energy Technology Perspective 2012: Pathways to Clean Energy Systems, 2012.

[20] Jensen, A. F., E. Cherchi, S. L. Mabit, and J. D. D. Ortúzar, “Predicting the potential market for electric vehicles.” Transportation Science, Vol. 51, No. 2, 2017, pp. 427~440.10.1287/trsc.2015.0659

[21] Jochem, Eberhard, Elna Schirrmeister, and Frank Marscheider-Weidemann, “4. Potential economic impacts of fuel cell technologies,” A chapter in Arman Avadikyan, Patrick Cohendet, Jean-Alain Héraud eds., The Economic Dynamics of Fuel Cell Technologies, Springer, 2003.10.1007/978-3-540-24822-4_5<

[22] Leurent, F. and W. Elisabeth, “Benefits and costs of electric vehicles for the public finances: An integrated valuation model based on input–output analysis, with application to France.” Research in Transportation Economics, Vol. 50, 2015, pp. 51~62.10.1016/j.retrec.2015.06.006

[23] Massiani, J. and G. Andreas, “The choice of Bass model coefficients to forecast diffusion for innovative products: An empirical investigation for new automotive technologies.” Research in Transportation Economics, Vol. 50, 2015, pp. 17~28.10.1016/j.retrec.2015.06.003

[24] McCoy, D. and L. Seán, “Consumer preferences and the influence of networks in electric vehicle diffusion: An agent-based micro-simulation in Ireland.” Energy Research & Social Science, Vol. 3, 2014, pp. 89~101.10.1016/j.erss.2014.07.008

[25] Miyata, Y., H. Shibusawa, and T. Fujii, “Economic and Environmental Impacts of Electric Vehicle Society in Toyohashi City in Japan - A CGE Modeling Approach -,” 54th Congress of the European Regional Science Association: “Regional development & globalisation: Best practices,” 26-29 August 2014, St. Petersburg, Russia, European Regional Science Association (ERSA), Louvain-la-Neuve, 2014.

[26] Osawa, J. and M. Nakano, “The Impact of the Popularization of Clean Energy Vehicles on Employment,” Procedia CIRP, Vol. 47, 2016, pp. 478~482.10.1016/j.procir.2016.03.052

[27] Osawa, J. and M. Nakano, “A model of the economic ripple effect caused by the spread of clean energy vehicles.” Trans. Jpn. Soc. Mech. Eng, Vol. 81, No. 823, 2015, p.14-00071.10.1299/transjsme.14-00071

[28] Park, S. Y., J. W. Kim, and D. H. Lee, “Development of a market penetration forecasting model for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles considering infrastructure and cost reduction effects.” Energy Policy, Vol. 39, No. 6, 2011, pp. 3307~3315.10.1016/j.enpol.2011.03.021

[29] Schmelzer, Stefan, and Michael Miess, “The Economic Costs of Electric Vehicles.” DEFINE Working Paper, 2015.

[30] van Meij, Hans and Frank van Tongeren, “Endogenous International Technology Spillovers and Biased Technical Change in the GTAP Model,” GTAP Technical Paper, No. 15, January 1999.

[31] Wenger, J. and E. Schirrmesiter, The innovation process from internal combustion to fuel cells - Chances and risks for the industry of Baden-Württemberg, FhG-ISI, Karlsruhe, 2000.

[32] Yusuf and Resosudarmo, “Searching for Equitable Energy Price Reform for Indonesia,” MPRA Paper, No. 2350, 2007.

자원·환경경제연구ISSN:1229-9146(Print)자원 · 환경경제연구

All Issue