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2021 Vol.30, Issue 3 Preview Page

Research Paper

Analysis of Determinants of Electricity Import and Export in Europe Using Spatial Econometrics

공간계량 방법론을 활용한 유럽의 전력수출입 결정요인 분석

홍원준*, 이지훈**, 노주만***, 조홍종****

Won Jun Hong*, Jihoon Lee**, Jooman Noh***, and Hong Chong Cho****

*단국대학교 대학원 경제학과 석사과정, 제1저자(e-mail: 72201328@dankook.ac.kr)
**단국대학교 대학원 경제학과 석사과정, 공저자(e-mail: wlgns5749@gmail.com)
***단국대학교 대학원 경제학과 석사과정, 공저자(e-mail: jmnoh5724@dankook.ac.kr)
****단국대학교 경제학과 부교수, 교신저자(e-mail: hongcho@dankook.ac.kr)
*Master's Degree, Department of Economics, Dankook University, First author(e-mail: 72201328@dankook.ac.kr)
**Master's Degree, Department of Economics, Dankook University, Co-author(e-mail: wlgns5749@gmail.com)
***Master's Degree, Department of Economics, Dankook University, Co-author(e-mail: jmnoh5724@dankook.ac.kr)
****Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Dankook University, Corresponding author(e-mail: hongcho@dankook.ac.kr)
30 September 2021. pp. 435-469
PDF Citation
Abstract
The main purpose of this study is to identify the determinants of electricity import and export in 26 European Union countries using the Spatial durbin model(SDM). In particular, we would like to mainly explain it based on the amount of power generated by each energy source. Not just the usual way of constructing a weighting matrix based on contiguity, we adopt a weighting method based on the proportion of trade among countries with connected electricity systems. Moreover, the electricity systems of European countries are directly and indirectly connected, which is reflected in the weighting matrix. According to the results, nuclear power has a positive effect on exports and a negative effect on imports, and an increase in wind and solar power has a positive effect on both exports and imports by increasing power system instability. While Korea is unable to trade electricity due to geopolitical conditions, the results of this study are expected to provide implications for energy policies.
Keywords
Cross Border Electricity trading(CBET)
Spatial econometrics
Spatial Durbin Model(SDM)
Energy mix
본 연구에서는 패널 공간더빈모형을 활용하여 유럽연합 회원국 26개 국가의 전력수출입 결정요인을 밝히는 것을 주요 목적으로 하며, 특히 전원별 발전량을 중심으로 설명하고자 한다. 이때 공간더빈모형을 활용함에 있어 단순히 인접기준 혹은 거리에 의해 가중치를 부여하는 방식이 아닌 전력 계통이 연계된 국가 간의 교역 비중을 기준으로 공간가중치 행렬을 구성하고자 한다. 또한 유럽 국가들의 전력계통은 직간접적으로 연결되어 지리적으로 멀리 떨어진 국가들 사이의 상호작용이 가능하므로, 이를 가중치행렬에 반영한다. 이를 바탕으로 분석한 결과, 원자력발전은 수출에는 양의 효과, 수입에는 음의 효과를 미치며 풍력·태양광 발전량의 증가는 전력의 계통 불안정성을 높여 수출과 수입에 모두 양의 효과를 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 현재 국내의 지리적 여건상 타국과의 전력교역은 어려운 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구의 결과는 국내 에너지믹스 정책에 있어 시사하는 바가 있으며, 이전에 사용되지 않던 방식의 가중치행렬을 이용한 패널 공간더빈모형을 통해 전력수출입 요인을 분석했다는 데 의의가 있다.
키워드
유럽 전력 교역
공간계량분석
패널 공간더빈모형(SDM)
에너지믹스
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Information
  • Publisher :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
  • Publisher(Ko) :자원 · 환경경제연구
  • Journal Title :자원·환경경제연구
  • Journal Title(Ko) :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
  • Volume : 30
  • No :3
  • Pages :435-469
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.15266/KEREA.2021.30.3.435
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