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2019 Vol.28, Issue 3 Preview Page
September 2019. pp. 437~465
Abstract
In this study, we propose a new method to forecast long-term energy demand in Korea. Based on Chang et al. (2016), which models the time varying long-run relationship between electricity demand and GDP with a function coefficient panel model, we design several schemes to retain objectivity of the forecasting model. First, we select the bandwidth parameters for the income coefficient based on the out-of-sample forecasting performance. Second, we extend the income coefficient using the functional principal component analysis method. Third, we proposed a method to reflect the elasticity change patterns inherent in Korea. In the empirical analysis part, we forecasts the long-term energy demand in Korea using the proposed method to show that the proposed method generates more stable long term forecasts than the existing methods.
본 연구에서는 장기 전력 수요와 GDP 사이의 소득계수를 시간과 GDP의 값에 따라 변화하도록 모형화한 Chang et al.(2016)에 기반을 두어 장기 에너지 수요의 예측에 관련된 새로운 방법을 제안한다. 본 논문에서는 장기 에너지와 GDP 사이의 소득계수를 함수로 표현하고, 함수 주성분 분석(Functional Principal Component Analysis)을 통하여 함수계수(Functional Coefficient)를 예측하고 이를 장기 에너지 수요 예측에 적용한다. 또한 함수계수를 비모수적으로 추정할 때 너비띠 모수를 예측 실험 오차를 최소화하도록 설정하는 방식을 제안하였고 개별 국가의 함수계수 변화 패턴을 반영하여 개별 국가의 특수성을 반영하는 예측 방법도 제시한다. 실증분석에서는 전 세계 에너지 데이터를 이용하여 한국의 장기 에너지 수요 예측을 본 논문에서 제시한 방법으로 예측하고, 기존의 방법들 보다 안정적인 장기 에너지 수요 예측이 가능함을 보였다.
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Information
  • Publisher :Korea Resource Economics Association · Korea Environmental Economics Association
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국자원경제학회·한국환경경제학회
  • Journal Title :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
  • Journal Title(Ko) :자원·환경경제연구
  • Volume : 28
  • No :3
  • Pages :437~465