Long-term Energy Demand Forecast in Korea Using Functional Principal Component Analysis

doi:10.15266/KEREA.2019.28.3.437

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2019 Vol.28, Issue 3 Preview Page

Research Paper

Long-term Energy Demand Forecast in Korea Using Functional Principal Component Analysis 함수 주성분 분석을 이용한 한국의 장기 에너지 수요예측: 최용옥*, 양현진**
Yongok Choi* and Hyunjin Yang**; *중앙대학교 경제학부, 조교수, 제1저자(e-mail: choiyongok@cau.ac.kr)
**성균관대학교 경제학과, 박사과정, 교신저자(e-mail: curiosboy@skku.edu)

*Assistant Professor, School of Economics, Chung-Ang University, First author(e-mail: choiyongok@ cau.ac.kr)
**Ph.D. Student, Department of Economics, SungKyunKwan University, Corresponding author(e-mail: curiosboy@skku.edu)

30 September 2019. pp. 437~465

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Abstract

In this study, we propose a new method to forecast long-term energy demand in Korea. Based on Chang et al. (2016), which models the time varying long-run relationship between electricity demand and GDP with a function coefficient panel model, we design several schemes to retain objectivity of the forecasting model. First, we select the bandwidth parameters for the income coefficient based on the out-of-sample forecasting performance. Second, we extend the income coefficient using the functional principal component analysis method. Third, we proposed a method to reflect the elasticity change patterns inherent in Korea. In the empirical analysis part, we forecasts the long-term energy demand in Korea using the proposed method to show that the proposed method generates more stable long term forecasts than the existing methods.

Keywords

Long-term energy demand forecasting

Functional principal component analysis

Time varying elasticity

Functional coefficient model

Panel model

Optimal bandwidth selection

본 연구에서는 장기 전력 수요와 GDP 사이의 소득계수를 시간과 GDP의 값에 따라 변화하도록 모형화한 Chang et al.(2016)에 기반을 두어 장기 에너지 수요의 예측에 관련된 새로운 방법을 제안한다. 본 논문에서는 장기 에너지와 GDP 사이의 소득계수를 함수로 표현하고, 함수 주성분 분석(Functional Principal Component Analysis)을 통하여 함수계수(Functional Coefficient)를 예측하고 이를 장기 에너지 수요 예측에 적용한다. 또한 함수계수를 비모수적으로 추정할 때 너비띠 모수를 예측 실험 오차를 최소화하도록 설정하는 방식을 제안하였고 개별 국가의 함수계수 변화 패턴을 반영하여 개별 국가의 특수성을 반영하는 예측 방법도 제시한다. 실증분석에서는 전 세계 에너지 데이터를 이용하여 한국의 장기 에너지 수요 예측을 본 논문에서 제시한 방법으로 예측하고, 기존의 방법들 보다 안정적인 장기 에너지 수요 예측이 가능함을 보였다.

키워드

장기 에너지 수요예측

함수 주성분 분석

시간 변동 소득탄력성

함수계수모형

패널모형

최적 너비띠 모수 결정

References

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Chang, Y., , C. S. Kim., J. I. Miller, S. Park, and J. Y. Park, “Time-varying long-run income and output elasticities of electricity demand with an application to Korea,” Energy Economics, Vol. 46, 2014, pp. 334~347.10.1016/j.eneco.2014.10.003
Chang, Y., Y. Choi, C. S. Kim, J. I. Miller, and J. Y. Park, “Disentangling temporal patterns in elasticities: A functional coefficient panel analysis of electricity demand,” Energy Economics, Vol. 60, 2016, pp. 232~243.10.1016/j.eneco.2016.10.002
Dargay, J. M., Are price and income elasticities of demand constant? Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 1992.
Galli, R., “The relationship between energy intensity and income levels: forecasting long term energy demand in Asian emerging countries,” The Energy Journal, Vol. 19, No. 4, 1998, pp. 85~106.10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol19-No4-4
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Judson, R. A., R. Schmalensee, and T. M. Stoker, “Economic development and the structure of the demand for commercial energy,” The Energy Journal, Vol. 20, No. 2, 1999, pp. 29~57.10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-No2-2
Luzzati, T. and M. Orsini “Investigating the energy-environmental Kuznets curve,” Energy, Vol. 34 No. 3, 2009, pp. 291~300.10.1016/j.energy.2008.07.006
Medlock III, K. B. and R. Soligo, “Economic development and end-use energy demand,” The Energy Journal, Vol. 22, No. 2, 2001, pp. 77~105.10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol22-No2-4
Nguyen-Van, P., “Energy consumption and income: A semiparametric panel data analysis,” Energy Economics, Vol. 32, No. 3, 2010, pp. 557~563.10.1016/j.eneco.2009.08.017
Richmond, A. K. and R. K. Kaufmann, “Energy prices and turning points: the relationship between income and energy use/carbon emissions,” The Energy Journal, Vol. 27, No. 4, 2006a, pp. 157~180.10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol27-No4-7
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Information

Publisher :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
Publisher(Ko) :자원 · 환경경제연구
Journal Title :자원·환경경제연구
Journal Title(Ko) :Environmental and Resource Economics Review
Volume : 28
No :3
Pages :437~465
DOI :https://doi.org/10.15266/KEREA.2019.28.3.437

[1] 박준용‧김인무‧김창식‧이성로, “선도추급과정을 이용한 새로운 예측기법: 장기전력수요예측에의 응용”, ｢경제학연구｣, 제 59권 제3호, 2011, pp. 113~147.

[2] Bosq, D., Linear Processes in Function Spaces: Theory and Application, Springer-Verlag New York, 2000.10.1007/978-1-4612-1154-9

[3] Chang, H. and Y. Hsing, “The demand for residential electricity: new evidence on time-varying elasticities,” Applied Economics, Vol. 23, No. 7, 1991, pp. 1251~1256.10.1080/00036849100000165

[4] Chang, Y., , C. S. Kim., J. I. Miller, S. Park, and J. Y. Park, “Time-varying long-run income and output elasticities of electricity demand with an application to Korea,” Energy Economics, Vol. 46, 2014, pp. 334~347.10.1016/j.eneco.2014.10.003

[5] Chang, Y., Y. Choi, C. S. Kim, J. I. Miller, and J. Y. Park, “Disentangling temporal patterns in elasticities: A functional coefficient panel analysis of electricity demand,” Energy Economics, Vol. 60, 2016, pp. 232~243.10.1016/j.eneco.2016.10.002

[6] Dargay, J. M., Are price and income elasticities of demand constant? Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 1992.

[7] Galli, R., “The relationship between energy intensity and income levels: forecasting long term energy demand in Asian emerging countries,” The Energy Journal, Vol. 19, No. 4, 1998, pp. 85~106.10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol19-No4-4

[8] Haas, R. and L. Schipper, “Residential energy demand in OECD-countries and the role of irreversible efficiency improvements,” Energy Economics, Vol. 20, No. 4, 1998, pp. 421~442.10.1016/S0140-9883(98)00003-6

[9] Judson, R. A., R. Schmalensee, and T. M. Stoker, “Economic development and the structure of the demand for commercial energy,” The Energy Journal, Vol. 20, No. 2, 1999, pp. 29~57.10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-No2-2

[10] Luzzati, T. and M. Orsini “Investigating the energy-environmental Kuznets curve,” Energy, Vol. 34 No. 3, 2009, pp. 291~300.10.1016/j.energy.2008.07.006

[11] Medlock III, K. B. and R. Soligo, “Economic development and end-use energy demand,” The Energy Journal, Vol. 22, No. 2, 2001, pp. 77~105.10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol22-No2-4

[12] Nguyen-Van, P., “Energy consumption and income: A semiparametric panel data analysis,” Energy Economics, Vol. 32, No. 3, 2010, pp. 557~563.10.1016/j.eneco.2009.08.017

[13] Richmond, A. K. and R. K. Kaufmann, “Energy prices and turning points: the relationship between income and energy use/carbon emissions,” The Energy Journal, Vol. 27, No. 4, 2006a, pp. 157~180.10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol27-No4-7

[14] Richmond, A. K. and R. K. Kaufmann, “Is there a turning point in the relationship between income and energy use and/or carbon emissions?,” Ecological Economics, Vol. 56, No. 2, 2006b, pp. 176~189.10.1016/j.ecolecon.2005.01.011

자원·환경경제연구 ISSN:1229-9146(Print) Environmental and Resource Economics Review

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